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In a striking finding, an investigation has revealed that areas which strongly backed Brexit have experienced a notable increase in foreign workers since the 2016 referendum. However, this growth has coincided with rising economic deprivation, suggesting that the post-Brexit landscape is not aligning with the expectations of many Leave supporters.
Migration Trends Post-Brexit
The analysis, which draws on government Pay As You Earn data, indicates that the decade following the Brexit vote has seen a significant influx of non-UK workers, particularly in regions with staunch Leave support. Areas such as Wigan, which recently held a by-election in Makerfield, illustrate this trend; in June 2016, foreign workers comprised less than 5% of the local workforce, a figure that has now nearly doubled to just under 10% by December 2024.
While the overall proportion of foreign workers across the UK grew by 40% during the same period, it is the Leave-voting regions that have seen a more pronounced relative increase. This phenomenon highlights that areas less accustomed to migrant labour are now grappling with the realities of a changing demographic landscape.
Economic Decline in Leave Areas
Despite the increase in foreign workers, many Leave-voting constituencies are witnessing a decline in economic conditions. According to separate analyses of deprivation data, areas like Boston, Skegness, and Hartlepool have become increasingly deprived over the past decade. The strong Remain-voting constituencies, including Bristol Central and Cambridge, have seen improvements in their economic standing, contrasting sharply with the stagnation or decline seen in many Leave-supporting areas.
Notably, Anand Menon, director of The UK in a Changing Europe, emphasised that the perception of change can often drive political sentiments more than the actual numbers. He pointed out that while large cities with higher immigration may experience little local reaction, smaller towns can be significantly impacted by even a modest influx of new residents.
Health and Deprivation Disparities
The investigation further highlights a troubling correlation between high Leave votes and poorer health outcomes. Areas that voted Leave have reported increased risks of early death, a higher proportion of residents reliant on health-related benefits, and escalating hospital admissions for severe illnesses. This trend stands in stark contrast to improvements recorded in Remain-voting regions, which have fared better across various health metrics.
The disparity in housing and service accessibility also reflects a widening gap. Leave-voting areas have shown slower improvements or outright declines in housing conditions and service availability compared to their Remain counterparts.
Understanding the Bigger Picture
While the data underscores significant trends, experts caution against oversimplifying the narrative. Menon warns that attributing all economic challenges to Brexit ignores other critical factors, such as the impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic and global geopolitical shifts. He noted that historically, more affluent regions with a skilled workforce have demonstrated greater resilience in the face of economic turmoil.
Why it Matters
This investigation sheds light on the complexities of Brexit’s aftermath, revealing that while foreign worker numbers have surged in Leave-voting areas, these regions are concurrently experiencing deeper economic woes. The findings challenge the narrative that Brexit would lead to immediate and tangible benefits, highlighting instead a more nuanced reality where demographic changes do not guarantee economic uplift, ultimately prompting further debate on the long-term implications of the referendum.