New analysis reveals a surprising trend in the aftermath of Brexit: areas that predominantly voted to leave the EU have experienced a significant increase in foreign workers, outpacing their Remain-voting counterparts. However, this growth has not translated into overall economic improvement, as many of these regions have also seen a decline in living standards.
Foreign Workforce Growth in Leave Areas
According to a detailed investigation, regions that supported Brexit have seen a rapid rise in the number of non-UK employees since the referendum in 2016. The data indicates that the decade following the vote has diverged sharply from the expectations of many Leave supporters, with local economies becoming increasingly deprived.
The analysis, based on government Pay As You Earn statistics, shows that non-UK workers in strong Leave-voting areas have more than doubled from under 5% in June 2016 to nearly 10% by December 2024. In contrast, the overall increase in foreign workers across the UK was only 40% during the same period.
Areas such as Wigan, recently highlighted in the Makerfield by-election, exemplify this trend. These regions, once less accustomed to immigration, are now grappling with the realities of a changing workforce landscape.
Deprivation Rates Tell a Different Story
While the influx of foreign workers in Leave-voting areas may seem beneficial, it has coincided with a relative downturn in local economic conditions. A separate analysis of deprivation data reveals that many of these constituencies—like Boston and Skegness—have become increasingly impoverished since the referendum.
In stark contrast, Remain-voting areas, which typically include larger urban centres, have seen improvements in health and economic metrics over the same time frame. For instance, constituencies like Bristol Central and Cambridge have experienced notable gains in wealth and well-being.
Anand Menon, Director of The UK in a Changing Europe, pointed out that the perception of change often drives political sentiment. “People react to change,” he said, “an increase of 10,000 immigrants in central London may go unnoticed, but 200 newcomers in a small town can feel overwhelming.”
The Bigger Picture: Economic Resilience
The correlation between the rise of foreign workers and the decline in economic conditions in Leave-voting areas is complex. Many of these regions were already suffering from deep-rooted economic challenges, and the broader context—including the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic and global geopolitical tensions—has exacerbated their struggles.
Menon cautioned against oversimplifying the narrative by attributing all economic woes to Brexit. “It’s easy to blame Brexit for everything that’s gone wrong, but it isn’t the complete picture,” he noted. The reality is that wealthier areas, with a more skilled workforce, have demonstrated greater resilience in the face of adversity.
Health and Crime: A Growing Divide
Further analysis reveals stark differences in health and crime metrics between Leave and Remain constituencies. Regions with strong Leave support have seen a deterioration in health outcomes, including increased hospital admissions and higher rates of health-related benefits claims.
For example, Makerfield’s overall deprivation ranking fell only slightly, yet it plummeted significantly in housing and crime deprivation rankings over the past decade. This decline underscores the pressing issues these communities face, as they grapple with the dual challenges of rising foreign labour and falling living standards.
Why it Matters
The findings from this investigation highlight the complex and often contradictory consequences of Brexit on local communities. While foreign workers have flocked to Leave-voting regions, the economic realities tell a different story of stagnation and decline. As the UK continues to navigate its post-Brexit identity, understanding these dynamics will be crucial for policymakers and communities alike. The challenges facing these areas are not merely a reflection of immigration trends but a broader indication of the economic and social upheaval that Brexit has ushered in, raising critical questions about the future of these once-proud communities.
