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As the UK continues to navigate the aftermath of the Brexit referendum, new data reveals a significant uptick in the number of foreign workers in Leave-voting areas. This trend, uncovered by a Guardian investigation, suggests that the economic landscape in these regions has changed dramatically since the 2016 vote. Despite the expectations of many Leave supporters, these areas have experienced not only an increase in foreign labour but also a relative decline in economic well-being.
Foreign Worker Growth in Leave Areas
Analysis of government Pay As You Earn data indicates that between 2016 and the end of 2024, regions that strongly supported Brexit have seen a more pronounced growth in the foreign workforce compared to their Remain-voting counterparts. For instance, in Wigan, where the Makerfield by-election has recently taken place, the percentage of payrolled employees from outside the UK rose from less than 5% in June 2016 to nearly 10% by December 2024. This represents a remarkable increase, especially when considering that the overall growth of foreign workers across the UK was only 40% during the same period.
Interestingly, while larger cities that predominantly voted Remain still boast the highest absolute numbers of non-UK workers, it is the Leave-voting areas that are witnessing a faster growth rate. The influx of foreign workers is becoming increasingly visible in these communities, indicating a shift in the local workforce dynamics.
Economic Disparities: A Comparative Analysis
The findings also highlight a troubling trend: areas that voted Leave are, in many cases, becoming more economically deprived. A separate analysis of deprivation data shows that the strongest Remain-voting constituencies, such as Bristol Central and Cambridge, have experienced significant improvements from 2015 to 2025. In stark contrast, Leave-voting regions like Boston, Skegness, and North Warwickshire have seen their economic conditions worsen during the same timeframe.
While it is essential to note that economic challenges in these Leave areas predated Brexit, the recent data underscores a widening gap in health and socio-economic measures. According to Anand Menon, director of The UK in a Changing Europe, the perception of change can often be more potent than the actual numbers. He asserts that local communities may be more sensitive to small increases in immigration, as they can feel the impact more acutely than larger urban centres.
The Complexity of Cause and Effect
The relationship between Brexit and the changing socio-economic landscape is complex. Many of the areas that voted to leave the EU were already grappling with long-standing economic issues, and the influx of foreign workers is not solely to blame for their current challenges. Menon cautions against attributing all recent economic difficulties to Brexit, emphasising that wider factors, including the COVID-19 pandemic and global geopolitical events, have also played significant roles.
Furthermore, a closer examination of health metrics reveals that Leave-voting areas are increasingly falling behind in various health-related measures. These include higher risks of early death and increased reliance on health benefits. The data suggests that these communities are not only facing economic hardships but also struggling with deteriorating health outcomes compared to their Remain-voting counterparts.
Why it Matters
The evolving demographics in Leave-voting areas serve as a poignant reminder of the far-reaching consequences of the Brexit vote. The anticipated economic revival post-referendum has not materialised for many communities, leading to greater disparities in wealth and health outcomes. As local economies grapple with these changes, understanding the implications of immigration and socio-economic shifts will be crucial in shaping future policies and addressing the needs of these communities. The findings compel a re-examination of the narrative surrounding Brexit, highlighting that the complexities of migration and economic health extend far beyond simple cause-and-effect relationships.
