A new study reveals that the impending “super” El Niño weather phenomenon could jeopardise the livelihoods of approximately 500 million smallholder farmers worldwide, causing an estimated $342 billion (£260 billion) decline in agricultural output. As forecasters predict that this El Niño will escalate into a “very strong” event by winter, concerns mount over its impact on food supply chains, particularly in the UK, where campaigners urge the government to take decisive action.
A Looming Climate Crisis
El Niño events are notorious for altering weather patterns across the globe, and this latest iteration promises to be one of the most severe yet. According to market research firm Risilience, which specialises in climate risk modelling for major corporations, the projected losses reflect an average scenario for 11 key food commodities, calculated in last year’s prices. The findings serve as a stark reminder of the vulnerabilities faced by communities reliant on rainfed agriculture, particularly in the Global South, and highlight the fragility of the UK’s supply chains amid escalating climate challenges.
Dr Andrew William Coburn, a catastrophe modeller at Cambridge University and chair of Risilience, emphasised the urgency of addressing these risks. “The smallholder farmers that we depend on for so many foods can adapt in minor ways, but if they are in the regions most affected, they will be hit hard,” he warned. “We urgently need to create safety nets for them.”
Economic Consequences of Extreme Weather
The forecast from Risilience is alarming, predicting yield losses of up to 14 per cent across key commodities such as grains, oils, coffee, and cocoa during the extreme weather event. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) recently confirmed the onset of El Niño conditions, characterised by higher-than-average sea surface temperatures in the Pacific Ocean that disrupt rainfall patterns in regions like Africa, Asia, and Latin America. Compounding these issues, climate change has exacerbated the intensity of such weather events, leading to unprecedented temperature spikes and severe droughts or flooding.
As a result, we may see price surges of staple crops between 50 to 100 per cent, with potential export bans on rice from major producers like India, Vietnam, and Thailand, further tightening global food supplies. Aid organisations are already warning of worsening food crises, particularly as foreign aid from wealthier nations has dwindled. In response, UN food agencies have launched a $202 million appeal aimed at protecting 8.8 million vulnerable individuals from El Niño’s impacts through proactive interventions, including early warning systems and financial support for farmers.
Calls for Urgent Action
Dr Coburn highlighted the need for businesses to develop contingency plans to mitigate supply chain disruptions caused by the super El Niño. “Companies can take measures such as increasing stockpiles or diversifying suppliers,” he said, emphasising the importance of integrating crop insurance and providing smallholders with access to drought-resistant seeds and training.
Marie Rumsby, advocacy director at the Fairtrade Foundation, underscored the significance of implementing a mandatory human rights and environmental due diligence (HREDD) law in the UK. This legislation would compel businesses to address issues within their supply chains related to human rights and environmental sustainability. Despite announcements regarding a review of responsible business conduct policy earlier this year, delays in legislative action have raised concerns amongst campaigners.
“We are entering an El Niño year with food systems already under immense strain from climate change,” Rumsby noted. “The people feeding the global economy are suffering the worst impacts of this crisis, despite contributing the least to its causes. It is unacceptable for farmers to bear the burden of a crisis they did not create.”
The Impact on Consumers
The chaos induced by the super El Niño is expected to have repercussions for UK consumers as well. The Energy & Climate Intelligence Unit’s Gareth Redmond-King indicated that climate change has already inflated the average UK household food bill by £360 over the past two years. As prices for cocoa and coffee rise, the pressing need for decisive action becomes clear.
In light of calls for expedited supply chain regulations, a spokesperson from the Department for Business and Trade reiterated the government’s commitment to tackling forced labour and human rights abuses. “The Responsible Business Conduct review is progressing, and ministers will provide an update to Parliament once complete,” they stated.
Why it Matters
As the threat of a super El Niño looms, the stakes have never been higher for both farmers and consumers. The potential for significant agricultural losses not only endangers the livelihoods of millions but also heightens food insecurity globally. With supply chains already under strain, the urgency for effective government intervention cannot be overstated. The upcoming months will be critical in determining how well the world can adapt to the challenges posed by climate change and safeguard the future of food security.
