The looming super El Niño weather phenomenon is poised to deliver a staggering blow to global agriculture, with projections indicating potential losses of $342 billion (£260 billion). This alarming forecast highlights the precarious situation facing an estimated 500 million smallholder farmers worldwide, many of whom rely on rainfed agriculture for their livelihoods. As climate change intensifies, experts warn that the impacts of this weather event could exacerbate existing vulnerabilities within agricultural supply chains, particularly in the UK.
Understanding the Super El Niño Phenomenon
El Niño, a climate pattern characterised by warmer-than-average sea surface temperatures in the Pacific Ocean, significantly alters weather systems across the globe. Forecasters predict that by winter 2026, this particular event will develop into a “very strong” super El Niño, which is likely to disrupt agricultural production and threaten food security on an unprecedented scale.
Research conducted by Risilience, a market analysis firm that collaborates with major corporations such as Tesco and Nestlé, reveals that the upcoming super El Niño could lead to yield losses of up to 14 per cent across 11 key food commodities, including grains, dairy, and livestock. This forecast serves as a critical reminder of the fragility of food systems, particularly in regions heavily reliant on consistent weather patterns.
The Impact on Smallholder Farmers
Smallholder farmers, who play a crucial role in global food production, are expected to bear the brunt of the super El Niño’s effects. Dr Andrew William Coburn, a catastrophe modeller at Cambridge University and chairman of Risilience, emphasised the dire situation, stating, “The smallholder farmers that we depend on for so many foods can do small things to adapt, but if they happen to live in regions that are worst affected, they are going to be hit by a freight train.”
Without adequate support and protection, these farmers may find themselves facing insurmountable challenges as extreme weather events become more frequent due to climate change.
Urgent Calls for Action
In light of these findings, campaigners are calling for the UK government to implement stronger regulations regarding supply chain due diligence. The anticipated announcement of a mandatory human rights and environmental due diligence (HREDD) law has been delayed for over two months, prompting concerns that inaction could lead to catastrophic consequences for both vulnerable communities abroad and consumers at home.
Marie Rumsby, advocacy director at the Fairtrade Foundation, stressed the need for decisive government action: “It cannot fall to farmers to fix a crisis they did not create. We need the Government to step up with clear, enforceable rules that hold companies to account, protect people and the planet, and ensure the cost of climate change does not fall on those least able to pay.”
The Global Food Security Crisis
As food crises deepen globally, the impact of the super El Niño is expected to worsen existing challenges. Aid agencies, recognising the urgency of the situation, have launched a $202 million appeal aimed at safeguarding 8.8 million people from the fallout of this climatic event through proactive measures. Carl Skau, acting executive director of the World Food Programme, warned of the limited time available to act: “With El Niño on the horizon, we have a narrow window to act so families are not forced into impossible choices later.”
The potential for surging prices—up to 100 per cent for staple crops—combined with possible export bans from major rice-producing nations, could lead to further instability in global food supplies.
Why it Matters
The impending super El Niño is not just an environmental concern; it is a pressing humanitarian crisis that threatens the livelihoods of millions and the food security of nations. As climate change exacerbates extreme weather events, the responsibility falls on governments and corporations to take immediate action to protect vulnerable populations and strengthen supply chains. Failure to do so could result in devastating consequences for smallholder farmers and consumers alike, highlighting the urgent need for effective policies and regulations to combat the effects of climate change.
