The political landscape of Europe is undergoing a seismic shift, with nearly 25% of voters now siding with far-right parties, a staggering increase from just over 5% in 1995. This alarming trend, documented in a comprehensive analysis conducted by over 150 political scientists across 31 nations, highlights a dramatic rise in support for far-right ideologies, particularly in the wake of recent national elections in major European countries.
A Rising Tide of Extremism
The research, spearheaded by Matthijs Rooduijn, a political scientist from the University of Amsterdam, reveals that the proportion of voters backing far-right parties has nearly quintupled in the last three decades. In the most recent national elections, the figure surged to 23%, a sharp rise from about 10% a decade ago. The findings are part of the ongoing PopuList project, which monitors far-left, far-right, and populist parties across Europe, indicating that anti-establishment sentiments have also gained traction, with approximately 30% of voters now supporting such parties.
“The shift is significant,” Rooduijn states. “When we initiated the PopuList in 2018, we found that one in four Europeans were voting for populist parties, predominantly far-left and far-right. Now, we see a clear dominance of the far-right.” The study reveals that the period from 2023 to 2025 has been particularly fruitful for these parties, with historic electoral successes recorded in France, the UK, and Germany.
Key Electoral Gains
The electoral landscape is increasingly dominated by far-right parties, which have made substantial gains in recent elections. In 2024, France’s National Rally (RN) skyrocketed from 19% to 37% of the vote, securing its position as the largest party in parliament. Similarly, Austria’s Freedom Party (FPÖ) surged from 16% to 29%, while Portugal’s Chega increased its share from 7% to 18%. In the UK, Reform UK, previously known as the Brexit Party, improved its vote share from a mere 2% in 2019 to 14% in 2024.
The trend continued in Germany, where the Alternative für Deutschland (AfD) doubled its vote from 10% to 21% in the 2025 elections, marking its emergence as the second-largest party in the country. Far-right populists are now entrenched in governing coalitions in several nations, including Croatia, Italy, and Finland, and are polling strongly in Austria, Belgium, France, Germany, and the UK.
Factors Behind the Shift
Experts attribute the rise of far-right parties to several interconnected factors. Rooduijn notes that attitudes toward core issues, such as immigration, have remained relatively stable over time but have recently gained heightened importance in voters’ decision-making processes. The normalisation of far-right ideologies has also contributed significantly; as these parties grow in size and influence, they have become increasingly accepted within mainstream political discourse.
Moreover, far-right parties excel in crafting compelling narratives that resonate with voters. By framing their messaging around a dichotomy of “us versus them,” they effectively evoke emotions such as anger and pride, successfully tapping into societal discontent and fears.
The Political Landscape: Winners and Losers
Despite their gains, far-right parties have not been universally successful. Notably, Geert Wilders’ Freedom Party (PVV) in the Netherlands suffered a substantial defeat, losing nearly a third of its seats in the last election. In Hungary, Viktor Orbán’s Fidesz faced a major setback against a centre-right rival. These losses, however, have not significantly dented the overall upward trajectory of far-right support across Europe, which Rooduijn emphasises is a long-term trend rather than a sudden phenomenon.
Why it Matters
The implications of this shift are profound and concerning. As far-right parties gain ground, the very foundations of liberal democracy are at risk. The experiences of countries like Hungary and Poland serve as cautionary tales, illustrating how far-right populism can undermine democratic norms and erode the rights of minorities. The rise of these parties is not merely a political trend; it represents a fundamental challenge to the principles of inclusivity, tolerance, and democratic integrity that underpin European societies. As the electorate increasingly turns to these populist movements, the future of democracy in Europe hangs in the balance, demanding urgent attention and action from all corners of the political spectrum.