Passenger flights between Ethiopia’s capital, Addis Ababa, and the northern Tigray region have been abruptly cancelled, signalling a potential resurgence of conflict in an area still reeling from the scars of a brutal civil war. Ethiopian Airlines informed travellers via text message, citing “unplanned circumstances,” but has yet to provide further details on the cancellations. Reports from local media and airport staff in Tigray confirm that staff have been instructed not to report to work, indicating a serious escalation of tensions.
Escalating Tensions in Tigray
The cancellations come as hostilities appear to be rekindling, particularly in the contested region of Mai Degusha, located in the Tselemti district of western Tigray. This area has been a flashpoint between the federal army and fighters from the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF). The fragile peace established by a 2022 accord is increasingly under threat, as disputes over territory and the upcoming national elections in June exacerbate existing tensions.
The civil war, which lasted for over two years, displaced approximately one million people from Tigray, with many still living in dire conditions in makeshift camps. The Ethiopian government has promised to resolve territorial disputes through a referendum, yet uncertainty looms over whether displaced individuals will have the opportunity to participate in this vote.
Government and TPLF Relations Deteriorate
The relationship between the TPLF and the Ethiopian government has soured significantly since the peace agreement, which was facilitated by the African Union. Following the truce, the TPLF sought to regain its status as a legitimate political party, having been labelled a terrorist organisation during the conflict. However, ongoing disagreements have hindered this process, culminating in the recent revocation of the TPLF’s electoral license by the national electoral board, effectively barring the party from contesting in the upcoming elections.
Adding to the complexity, internal divisions within the TPLF have further compounded the already fraught political landscape. Once the dominant force in Ethiopian politics, the party has struggled to adapt since Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed assumed power in 2018, leading to a significant reshaping of the political arena.
The Broader Implications of Renewed Conflict
The potential for renewed violence is underscored by reports of military movements in southern Tigray, raising alarms among the local population. Many residents express a deep-seated fear of another war, with memories of the devastating toll of the last conflict still fresh. An African Union envoy has estimated that around 600,000 people lost their lives during the Tigray war, with all parties accused of committing severe human rights abuses, including mass killings and widespread sexual violence.
Currently, while buses continue to operate between Addis Ababa and Tigray, the suspension of flights raises concerns about the feasibility of safe travel in the region. The unrest not only affects those directly involved but also has wider implications for regional stability and humanitarian conditions.
Why it Matters
The situation in Tigray serves as a critical reminder of the fragility of peace in conflict-ridden areas. As tensions rise and the threat of renewed violence looms, the international community must remain vigilant and responsive. The humanitarian implications are dire, with thousands still displaced and vulnerable. The failure to resolve these issues could lead to further destabilisation, not just within Ethiopia but across the Horn of Africa, underscoring the urgent need for sustained dialogue and intervention to prevent a return to conflict.