In a pivotal moment for both the UK and NATO, Keir Starmer is gearing up to rally European allies at the upcoming summit in Ankara on Tuesday. As concerns mount regarding Donald Trump’s potential to destabilise the military alliance with his criticisms over defence spending, the outgoing Prime Minister is keen to emphasise Britain’s steadfast commitment to NATO.
Facing Down Trump’s Critiques
Downing Street has indicated that the summit will be centred around “building a stronger and more European NATO,” a direct response to the US President’s recent remarks suggesting that some member nations are lagging in their defence commitments. Trump is expected to openly challenge countries, including the UK, for not adequately progressing towards the goal of spending 3.5% of GDP on defence by 2035.
In light of these assertions, a spokesperson for the Prime Minister firmly rejected the US ambassador’s claims that “some allies are doing more than others,” asserting that the UK has consistently met its NATO obligations and remains a leading defence contributor within the alliance. “We do not anticipate Starmer receiving a dressing down from President Trump,” they stated.
A Last Chance for Diplomacy
With less than two weeks left in his tenure, this NATO summit may represent Starmer’s final international engagement as Prime Minister. The meeting comes at a time of heightened tension, particularly following disagreements over the war in Iran. Meanwhile, Andy Burnham, poised to succeed Starmer, is engaged in discussions with civil servants regarding transition plans, underlining the urgency of the situation.
Starmer faces criticism for potentially leaving Burnham with a £5 billion gap in defence investments, a concern that could undermine the UK’s defence strategy moving forward. Nonetheless, No. 10 has assured that the UK’s NATO contributions, deemed essential for national security, will remain robust, with defence spending projected to rise to 2.7% of GDP by 2027-28.
The Growing Threat from Russia
The backdrop to this summit is a significant uptick in Russian military activity near NATO waters, with a reported 30% increase in vessels posing a threat to UK waters over the past two years. In response, NATO has scrambled fighter jets over 700 times to intercept Russian aircraft encroaching on allied airspace.
A spokesperson emphasised the necessity of a unified front: “In a new era of threat, alongside our allies, the Prime Minister will focus on building a stronger and more European NATO, prepared to support Ukraine and confront the long-term dangers posed by an increasingly reckless Russia.”
Seeking Fairer Burden Sharing
While Trump will hold individual discussions with leaders like Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, Starmer is likely to have limited interaction with him, primarily during group sessions. Nevertheless, Starmer and his European counterparts aim to convey their commitment to translating spending pledges into tangible actions, advocating for “fairer burden sharing” within the alliance.
The UK ranks as the third-largest contributor to NATO in real terms, following only the US and Germany. However, it stands in 14th place among the 32 member states when assessed by percentage of GDP. UK officials have promised a series of defence industry announcements, including joint projects with allies, to underscore this commitment.
Despite the ongoing tensions with European partners and Trump’s previous threats regarding NATO’s future, the summit is expected to serve as a platform for the US President to assess other nations’ military readiness while exerting pressure to meet the ambitious 5% target.
Why it Matters
This NATO summit in Ankara is not just a diplomatic gathering; it’s a critical juncture for the future of transatlantic alliances. As Starmer faces increasing scrutiny and prepares to pass the torch to Burnham, the discussions around defence spending and NATO commitments will resonate far beyond the conference room. The outcomes here could shape the security landscape of Europe for years to come, especially in the face of an unpredictable Russia and an America under Trump’s influence, making it essential for the UK to assert its position as a reliable ally.
