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In a bold move from the Oval Office, Donald Trump has signed an executive order aimed at imposing tariffs on nations supplying oil to Cuba, escalating his administration’s campaign to destabilise the island’s long-standing Communist regime. The announcement, made on Thursday, marks a significant escalation in US-Cuba relations, framed by the White House as a response to Cuba’s alleged alliances with hostile entities, including Russia and militant groups such as Hamas and Hezbollah.
A National Emergency Declared
The newly signed order declares a national emergency, allowing US secretaries of state and commerce to evaluate and enact tariffs against countries that provide oil to Cuba. While specific tariff rates remain undisclosed, the White House has articulated a clear narrative: Cuba’s connections to adversarial nations pose a direct threat to American security and interests.
“This constitutes an unusual and extraordinary threat,” the White House stated, underscoring the urgency of the situation. The implications of this order are profound for the Caribbean nation, which is already grappling with severe economic strain and limited resources.
Cuba’s Fragile Economic Landscape
Cuba, an island nation with a population of approximately 8 million, relies heavily on imported oil, making it exceptionally vulnerable to external pressures. The country’s economy is comparable to that of a small US state, with a GDP of around $85 billion. For decades, the Communist Party has maintained a tight grip on power, but recent geopolitical shifts have exposed the frailties of its economic structure.
In recent months, Cuba has faced significant challenges, particularly following the US’s dramatic arrest of Venezuelan leader Nicolás Maduro and his wife. With Maduro’s regime being a primary supplier of oil to Cuba, the island now finds itself in a precarious position, having lost access to a crucial resource. This has led to widespread gasoline rationing and sporadic electricity blackouts, leaving the population struggling under the weight of shortages.
Tensions with Mexico Rise
As Trump tightens the screws on Cuba, tensions have escalated with Mexico, a key supplier of oil to the island. Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum has pushed back against US demands, asserting that Mexico’s state oil company, Pemex, will uphold its contractual obligations to provide oil to Cuba, including for humanitarian purposes.
“We will continue to show solidarity with the entire world,” Sheinbaum stated, emphasising Mexico’s commitment to humanitarian aid. However, she also acknowledged that oil shipments to Cuba have temporarily stalled, reflecting the complex interplay of international relations in this high-stakes scenario. Last year, Mexico supplied around 20,000 barrels of oil per day to Cuba, a significant portion of the island’s energy needs.
The Path Ahead for Cuba
The looming tariffs and strained oil supplies have led to predictions of imminent economic collapse in Cuba. Trump has asserted that the regime’s reliance on Venezuelan oil has been severely compromised. “Cuba will be failing pretty soon,” he remarked, signalling his belief in the effectiveness of economic pressure as a tool for political change.
With tourism plummeting and essential supplies dwindling, the Cuban government faces an uphill battle to maintain stability. The stakes could not be higher as the island’s leadership grapples with increasing internal discontent and external pressures.
Why it Matters
The implications of Trump’s executive order extend far beyond economics; they signal a renewed era of confrontation between the US and Cuba, reminiscent of Cold War tensions. As the situation unfolds, it could reshape the geopolitical landscape of the region, impacting diplomatic relations and the lives of millions who call Cuba home. The world will be watching closely to see if this aggressive strategy will indeed lead to the downfall of a regime that has persisted for over six decades, or merely exacerbate the suffering of an already beleaguered population.
