Prime Minister Mark Carney is strategically seeking to bolster his government’s slender majority by scheduling three by-elections for August 31, 2023. The contests will take place in North Vancouver–Capilano, Beaches–East York in Toronto, and Chicoutimi–Le Fjord in Quebec. With the House of Commons set to reconvene this autumn, these elections could provide a critical opportunity for the Liberals to enhance their parliamentary standing, particularly in light of recent opposition vacancies.
The By-Election Landscape
The upcoming by-elections come in the wake of several recent resignations, including that of former environment minister Jonathan Wilkinson, who stepped down to become Canada’s Ambassador to the European Union, and Nathaniel Erskine-Smith, who resigned his Toronto seat earlier this month. Both ridings are relatively safe for the Liberals, which means the focus will largely be on Chicoutimi–Le Fjord, a battleground seat previously held by Conservative MP Richard Martel.
Martel, a prominent figure in the region known for his background as a hockey coach, was appointed to the Senate by Carney earlier this month. This departure opens the door for a Liberal challenge in a riding that has seen fluctuating allegiances over the past two decades. According to polling analyst Éric Grenier, Chicoutimi–Le Fjord is currently viewed as a competitive race among the Liberals, Conservatives, and Bloc Québécois, presenting a significant opportunity for the governing party.
The Stakes in Chicoutimi–Le Fjord
Chicoutimi–Le Fjord’s political history is complex. It has oscillated between the Bloc Québécois and the NDP before settling with the Conservatives in a 2018 by-election. A Liberal victory here would not only demonstrate the party’s resilience in Quebec but would also be a significant blow to Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre, who has already faced challenges following multiple defections to the Liberals.
Grenier notes that Carney’s decision to appoint Martel to the Senate was likely a calculated move to facilitate Liberal gains in the riding. “It’s actually a chance to pick up a seat,” he remarked, underscoring the electoral maths at play. A Liberal win could also signal a shift in voter sentiment as the Conservatives grapple with declining poll numbers.
Other Notable Races
In Beaches–East York, the Liberals have nominated Tanveer Shahnawaz, a former aide to Erskine-Smith, while the Conservatives have yet to announce their candidate. This riding is generally perceived as a stronghold for the Liberals, and analysts suggest it will serve as a litmus test for the NDP’s new leader, Avi Lewis. A solid performance by the NDP would be crucial if they hope to regain traction in urban centres like Toronto.
Meanwhile, in North Vancouver–Capilano, lawyer Stephen Curran will represent the Conservatives. The Liberal candidate in this riding is Braeden Caley, who previously worked as Carney’s deputy chief of staff. With the Liberals expected to maintain their grip in both Beaches–East York and North Vancouver, the focus remains on the outcomes in these key battlegrounds.
The Political Implications
With the departure of several opposition MPs, including former NDP member Alexandre Boulerice and Conservative Cathay Wagantall, the Liberals stand to gain traction in the House of Commons. If they manage to secure a win in one or more of these by-elections, the governing party could solidify their majority further, countering recent challenges and consolidating their position ahead of the crucial fall sitting.
Carney’s decision to hold these by-elections during the summer months has drawn criticism from Bloc Leader Yves François Blanchet, who described the timing as a “total disregard for democratic debate.” Such accusations may fuel further scrutiny of the government as it seeks to navigate the turbulent waters of public opinion.
Why it Matters
The outcome of these by-elections could significantly reshape the political landscape in Canada. A Liberal victory, particularly in Chicoutimi–Le Fjord, would not only strengthen Carney’s majority but also signal a potential shift in Quebec’s political dynamics. As the opposition faces internal challenges and the Liberals look to consolidate their power, these races will be closely watched by party strategists and political analysts alike. With the stakes this high, the ramifications of these by-elections will undoubtedly resonate throughout the upcoming parliamentary session.
