In a stark reflection of the shifting political landscape, Nigel Farage’s approval rating has plummeted to an unprecedented low of -32 per cent, according to new polling data. The results come as Labour’s new Prime Minister, Andy Burnham, enjoys a surge in popularity, with a current approval rating of +19 per cent. This dramatic turnaround signals a potential crisis for Farage’s Reform UK party, which is struggling to maintain its foothold in British politics.
Decline in Popularity
Recent polling from More in Common and Ipsos highlights a significant downturn in Farage’s support over the past fortnight, dropping approximately ten points. This decline is alarming for the politician who has been a polarising figure in UK politics for years. While Farage’s approval rating remains slightly higher than the -49 per cent recorded by Labour leader Sir Keir Starmer at one point during his tenure, it is nonetheless the lowest score Farage has seen in two years.
The latest figures indicate that Tory leader Kemi Badenoch holds a neutral approval rating of 0, while Liberal Democrat leader Sir Ed Davey sits at -11, and Green Party leader Zack Polanski has fallen to -24. The polling indicates that discontent among Farage’s supporters is growing, a trend that could have dire implications for Reform UK.
Burnham’s Ascendance
In contrast, Andy Burnham’s early days as Prime Minister have been marked by a surge in public favour. His net rating of +19 per cent surpasses the +11 per cent approval score achieved by Starmer shortly after he assumed leadership in 2024. Burnham’s approach has resonated with voters, with 48 per cent expressing a preference for a Labour-led government under his leadership, compared to 29 per cent supporting Farage’s Reform UK.
The key issues influencing public opinion ahead of the next election are healthcare and the NHS, cited by 59 per cent of respondents, followed closely by inflation and cost of living concerns at 57 per cent. Notably, immigration, a traditional stronghold for Farage, has now dropped to third in terms of voter priorities.
The Fallout from Controversy
Farage’s dwindling popularity can be partly attributed to a series of negative headlines regarding undeclared gifts and donations, as well as benefits received from his advisor, George Cottrell, a convicted fraudster. This controversy has compounded the challenges facing Reform UK, which has seen a three-point dip in support since Farage’s resignation as an MP to seek a by-election in Clacton, presumably to address an impending parliamentary standards inquiry.
Polling expert Lord Robert Hayward suggests that Farage’s close association with the Reform brand could create significant challenges ahead. “His support is intrinsically linked to the party,” he explained. “A decline in his popularity indicates deeper issues for Reform UK.”
Burnham’s Strategic Moves
Since taking office, Burnham has actively engaged in promoting a positive narrative, utilising social media platforms to connect with younger voters. His initiatives, such as a £2 cap on bus fares and significant reductions in VAT on energy bills, have been well-received. Although the funding for these policies remains to be clarified, they have effectively shifted public attention away from Farage and Reform UK.
Further complicating Farage’s situation, his recent decision to call a by-election has restricted his media visibility. Under Ofcom regulations, broadcasters must include references to the other 33 candidates in the race, making it challenging to feature him prominently in political discussions.
Why it Matters
The current political climate presents a crucial juncture for both Nigel Farage and Reform UK. As public sentiment continues to shift in favour of Labour and its new leadership, the decline of Farage’s approval rating signals potential electoral challenges ahead. The party’s ability to navigate this turbulent period will be instrumental in shaping its future in British politics, and the consequences could reverberate across the broader political spectrum as the next election approaches.
