In a notable upset, Labour’s Bev Craig has secured a commanding victory in the Greater Manchester mayoral byelection, defeating Reform UK with a substantial margin. Craig, who previously led the Manchester city council, will take over from Andy Burnham, who vacated his position after winning a parliamentary seat. This victory not only marks a resurgence for Labour but also raises questions about the future of Reform UK and its leader, Nigel Farage.
A Resounding Win for Labour
The byelection saw Labour garner 47% of the first-preference votes, significantly ahead of Reform UK, which managed only 21%. The Greens trailed in a distant third with 12%. The election was conducted under a supplementary vote system, necessitating a second round of counting after no candidate achieved the required 50% threshold. When second preferences were counted, Labour’s share soared to 66.3%, while Reform UK secured 33.7%.
In her acceptance speech at Co-op Live in Manchester, Craig called for unity, stating, “We must move away from divisive politics that try to pit neighbour against neighbour.” Her emphatic call reflects a broader desire among voters for a more cooperative political landscape.
Implications for Reform UK
This decisive loss poses significant challenges for Reform UK, which had previously enjoyed a strong presence in the region, particularly after capturing over 100 seats in the May elections. The party’s performance in this byelection contrasts sharply with its earlier success, especially in historically Labour strongholds such as Wigan and Tameside.
Farage’s decision to step down from his parliamentary role to contest a byelection in Clacton has been scrutinised as a misstep that may have undermined his party’s momentum. Prior to the byelection, polls indicated Labour and Reform UK were in a tight race, making the final outcome particularly surprising.
Labour’s resurgence appears to be driven by a combination of factors, including Burnham’s recent elevation to Prime Minister, which seems to have revitalised voter confidence in the party. One senior Labour source commented on the results, suggesting that Reform UK had “massively underperformed,” and noted that voters were eager to support Craig as a fresh alternative.
The Rise of Alternative Parties
Adding complexity to the electoral landscape, the newly formed hard-right party Restore Britain, led by Rupert Lowe, captured 8.7% of the vote, placing them ahead of the Conservatives. The party’s campaign focused on contentious issues such as child sexual abuse, which resonated with voters in more deprived areas. In Tameside, Restore Britain received 14% of the vote, translating to nearly 6,000 individual supporters.
This shift indicates a fracturing of the right-leaning vote, which could further complicate Reform UK’s position as it grapples with internal crises regarding its funding and strategic direction.
Disappointment for the Greens
For the Green Party, the outcome was less than promising. Despite a surge in support in previous elections, their candidate, Geraldine Coggins, remarked that the results were “not a ringing endorsement” for Craig. In comparison to Burnham’s consistent victories, Craig’s 47% vote share is seen as a step down, particularly given that Burnham never dipped below 60% in his three elections since 2017. Coggins highlighted that the necessity of a second round of voting demonstrates a loss of traction for Labour during what would typically be considered a favourable period for them.
Voter Turnout and Context
The byelection followed Burnham’s win in the Makerfield byelection on 18 June, leading to this significant contest with over two million eligible voters. However, voter turnout was disappointingly low at just 25%, marking it as the third lowest in any Greater Manchester mayoral byelection history. Analysts attribute this to a lack of voter engagement and the timing of the election during the summer holidays.
Why it Matters
The results of this byelection are pivotal, not just for Labour’s immediate prospects but also for the broader political landscape in the UK. Craig’s victory signals a potential revival for Labour, suggesting that the party may successfully reclaim the support of both left- and right-leaning voters who had previously turned away. Meanwhile, Reform UK’s struggles could indicate a shift in voter sentiment, while the emergence of parties like Restore Britain complicates the traditional political narrative, suggesting that the electorate is increasingly seeking alternatives to the established parties. As the political climate continues to evolve, all eyes will be on how these dynamics unfold in future elections.
