In a significant political turnaround, Labour’s Bev Craig has emerged victorious in the Greater Manchester mayoral byelection, decisively defeating Reform UK with a commanding 66.3% of the vote to 33.7%. This election serves as a critical indicator of Labour’s resurgence under new leadership, marking a potential turning point in the region’s political landscape.
A Historic Byelection
Craig, who previously held the position of Manchester city council leader, will now take over from Andy Burnham, a figure synonymous with the mayoralty since 2017. Her victory is particularly noteworthy as it reverses the recent gains made by Reform UK and the Greens in the May elections, where they had made substantial inroads into traditionally Labour strongholds.
In the first round of voting, Labour secured 47% of first-preference votes, compared to Reform UK’s 21% and the Greens’ 12%. However, due to the supplementary vote system, where second preferences are considered if no candidate achieves an outright majority, Craig’s margin widened significantly once those votes were counted.
Craig addressed supporters at Co-op Live in Manchester, urging a departure from divisive politics. “We must move away from divisive politics that try to pit neighbour against neighbour,” she asserted, highlighting a commitment to unity in a time of political fragmentation.
Implications for Reform UK and National Politics
The byelection’s outcome poses serious questions for Reform UK and its leader, Nigel Farage. Once enjoying a considerable lead in national polls, the party has now suffered a notable setback. A recent poll had shown Labour and Reform UK neck and neck in the mayoral race, but the byelection results indicate a troubling decline for Farage’s party, which had previously gained over 100 seats across Greater Manchester.
Notably, Reform UK’s recent gains in the May elections saw them dominate in Wigan and Tameside. However, Farage’s decision to resign from his MP role to focus on a byelection in Clacton appears to have jeopardised their mayoral campaign, raising concerns about the party’s future viability.
Labour sources reported that their party triumphed in every ward in areas like Bury and Tameside, regions where Reform UK had previously made significant strides. In Oldham, for instance, Labour captured 17 of 20 wards despite losing control just two months prior.
A Rising Threat: Restore Britain
Adding to Reform UK’s woes, a new player, Restore Britain, managed to secure 8.7% of the vote, placing them ahead of the Conservatives. This newly formed party, spearheaded by Rupert Lowe, focused its campaign on contentious issues like child sexual abuse, which resonated with voters in more deprived boroughs. In Tameside, Restore Britain garnered 14% of the vote, effectively siphoning support from Reform UK.
Craig’s post-election speech underscored a narrative of hope and resilience, emphasising solidarity among citizens. “I met fantastic people doing incredible things against the odds every single day,” she remarked, reinforcing Labour’s message of community and support.
Greens Left Disappointed
For the Green Party, the results were underwhelming, especially following their previous successes. Candidate Geraldine Coggins noted a disappointing outcome compared to Burnham’s historic performance, where he consistently won over 60% of the vote in past elections. “To have lost this much support in the honeymoon period of a new prime minister is not a positive sign for them,” Coggins commented, indicating a potential decline in the party’s influence.
Why it Matters
The Greater Manchester mayoral byelection serves as a bellwether for Labour’s renewed strength under new leadership, signalling a potential shift in voter sentiment away from right-wing politics. With Craig’s emphatic win, Labour is poised to reclaim lost ground, while Reform UK faces an existential crisis amid declining support and rising competition. As the political landscape continues to evolve, the ramifications of this byelection will be felt far beyond Greater Manchester, shaping the narrative for the upcoming general elections.
