In a stunning turnaround, Labour’s Bev Craig has decisively won the Greater Manchester mayoral byelection, defeating Reform UK with a commanding 66.3% of the vote in the second round. This victory not only marks Craig’s ascension as the new mayor but also signals a resurgence for the Labour Party in a region that had seen significant gains for its rivals in recent elections.
Craig’s Commanding Performance
The byelection, necessitated by former mayor Andy Burnham’s departure following his election win in the Makerfield byelection on 18 June, saw Labour reclaim ground lost to both Reform UK and the Greens. Craig, who has served as the leader of the Manchester City Council, garnered 47% of first-preference votes, significantly outpacing Reform UK, which managed only 21%, while the Greens trailed with 12%.
Due to the supplementary vote system in place, where no candidate achieved over 50% initially, the second preferences were tallied. This adjustment propelled Labour’s total to a resounding 66.3%, with Reform UK settling at 33.7% after other candidates were eliminated.
In her victory speech at Co-op Live in Manchester, Craig called for a shift away from polarising politics, urging the community to unite rather than divide. “We must reject the politics of hate,” she declared, resonating with voters eager for a fresh approach.
The Political Landscape Shifts
This election outcome poses significant implications for the political landscape in Greater Manchester and beyond. The results are a clear boost for Labour and Prime Minister Keir Starmer, suggesting that the party can win back previously loyal voters who strayed during his leadership.
The byelection’s scale was unprecedented, involving over two million eligible voters, yet the turnout was disappointingly low at just 25%. This figure marked the third lowest in the history of mayoral byelections, attributed to a combination of summer holiday distractions and a lack of voter engagement.
Previously, Reform UK had enjoyed a surge in popularity, winning over 100 council seats in Greater Manchester during the May elections, including a near-total sweep in traditionally Labour strongholds like Wigan and Tameside. However, the party’s fortunes have shifted dramatically, especially following Nigel Farage’s controversial decision to step back from parliamentary duties to focus on a byelection in Clacton, which has raised questions about Reform UK’s leadership and direction.
New Challenges for Reform UK and the Greens
The results are particularly concerning for Reform UK, who faced competition from the newly formed hard-right party, Restore Britain, which captured 8.7% of the vote, edging out the Conservatives. Led by Rupert Lowe, this party focused on contentious issues such as immigration, appealing to voters disillusioned with the mainstream options.
In contrast, the Greens, who previously thrived under Burnham, saw their support dip to just 7%. Candidate Geraldine Coggins expressed her disappointment, stating, “This is not a ringing endorsement,” highlighting that Burnham never dipped below a 60% approval rating in his three previous elections. The loss of support during a period of political transition is a worrying sign for the party, particularly as they navigate leadership changes.
Craig’s victory signifies a renewed faith in Labour, suggesting that voters are ready to embrace a party that understands their concerns and aspirations.
Why it Matters
The outcome of the Greater Manchester mayoral byelection is more than just a local victory; it reflects broader national trends and sentiments. Labour’s ability to regain support in the face of right-wing challenges illustrates a potential shift in the political narrative as the party looks to solidify its position under new leadership. For Reform UK, the loss highlights a critical moment of introspection as they grapple with their identity and strategy moving forward, while the Greens must reassess their approach to maintain relevance in a rapidly changing political environment. This byelection could signify a turning point in British politics, setting the stage for future electoral battles.
