In a significant political turnaround, Labour’s Bev Craig has triumphed in the Greater Manchester mayoral byelection, reclaiming vital support from voters who had previously shifted towards Reform UK and the Greens. Craig’s victory marks the beginning of her tenure following Andy Burnham, who vacated the post after winning a parliamentary seat in the Makerfield byelection. With Labour receiving 66.3% of the second-round votes, this decisive win not only restores Labour’s influence in the region but also raises questions about the future of Reform UK.
A Comprehensive Win for Labour
Labour’s performance in the byelection was nothing short of impressive, demonstrating a dramatic reversal from the results of the recent local elections. Craig, the current leader of Manchester city council, garnered 47% of first-preference votes, significantly outpacing Reform UK, which secured only 21%. The Greens followed with 12%. Due to the supplementary vote system in place—where if no candidate achieves a majority, second preferences are considered—Craig’s support soared to 66.3% against Reform UK’s 33.7%.
In her victory speech delivered at Co-op Live in Manchester, Craig emphasised the need to move away from divisive politics. “We must reject the politics of hate and stand with our neighbours,” she urged, invoking a sense of unity among constituents.
Implications for the Political Landscape
Craig’s victory is a pivotal moment for Labour and a significant boost for the newly appointed Prime Minister, who may view this outcome as an indication that the party can regain both left- and right-leaning voters who had shifted allegiance in recent times. The byelection results are particularly concerning for Nigel Farage’s Reform UK. Just last month, polls showed the party neck-and-neck with Labour, but the byelection has highlighted a troubling decline in their support.
Farage’s party had previously made noteworthy gains in Greater Manchester during the May elections, winning over 100 seats across the region. However, the party’s fortunes have waned since Farage’s controversial decision to step down as an MP to contest a byelection in Clacton, amidst scrutiny over his party’s funding. This strategic misstep appears to have cost Reform UK dearly, with Labour reclaiming ground in traditionally Labour-held areas.
A Mixed Bag for Other Parties
The byelection also had implications for the Green party, which failed to garner the support it had hoped for. With only 7% of the vote, the Greens expressed disappointment, particularly in light of the party’s recent successes. Geraldine Coggins, the Green candidate, acknowledged the campaign’s challenges, stating, “The fact this has even gone to the second round is devastating for them,” referring to Labour’s struggle to maintain the overwhelming support enjoyed by Burnham in previous elections.
In contrast, the newly established hard-right party, Restore Britain, managed to attract 8.7% of the vote, surpassing the Conservatives and indicating a potential shift in voter sentiments towards more extreme options. Their focus on controversial issues like child sexual abuse appears to have resonated, particularly in more deprived areas.
Voter Turnout and Future Outlook
Despite the electoral excitement, turnout was disappointingly low, with only 25% of eligible voters participating—marking the third lowest in the history of Greater Manchester mayoral byelections. Analysts attribute this to the timing of the election during the summer holidays and a general lack of voter awareness.
The byelection, notable for being the largest of its kind in British political history, saw over two million eligible voters. However, the lack of engagement poses a challenge for all parties moving forward, particularly as they seek to galvanise their bases ahead of future elections.
Why it Matters
The outcome of this byelection not only reinforces Labour’s foothold in Greater Manchester but also serves as a bellwether for the party’s national resurgence under new leadership. As Labour seeks to bridge divides and reclaim lost voters, the results also pose significant implications for Reform UK and its ability to maintain relevance amid growing competition from both traditional and emerging political factions. This pivotal moment could reshape the political landscape in the North, influencing voter behaviour and party strategies in the months to come.