Labour’s recent performance in the polls indicates a notable resurgence under new leader Andy Burnham, signalling a potential shift in the political landscape. Following his election as party leader, Labour secured a significant victory in the Greater Manchester mayoral by-election, reflecting a “Burnham bounce” that, while real, is not as formidable as it may seem.
Polls Reflect Labour’s Revival
Since Burnham assumed leadership less than two weeks ago, Labour’s average polling has climbed to the mid-20s, a marked improvement from the 19% recorded in late June when Sir Keir Starmer announced his resignation. This increase is Labour’s highest standing since early last year, yet it still falls short of the 35% garnered during the 2024 general election.
Historically, new prime ministers often experience a boost in popularity. For instance, Gordon Brown saw a seven-point rise for Labour in 2007 after taking over from Tony Blair, while Boris Johnson enjoyed a six-point increase upon succeeding Theresa May in 2019. The exception remains Liz Truss, whose brief tenure failed to provide any upward momentum.
Burnham’s Challenges Ahead
Despite the positive uptick, Burnham faces a steep uphill battle. When he inherited the party leadership, Labour’s polling was at its lowest point for a mid-term successor, making it unsurprising that a change in leadership would yield a temporary boost. Nevertheless, Burnham’s current ratings still represent the weakest performance for a new leader in recent history.
The mayoral by-election victory, where Labour captured 47% of the first-preference votes, is a significant leap from the 24% secured in May’s local elections and even surpasses Labour’s showing in the 2024 election. However, this figure pales in comparison to Burnham’s previous 63% in the last mayoral contest.
Reform Party’s Decline
Labour’s resurgence can be partly attributed to the struggles faced by Reform UK, which has recently encountered controversy surrounding its funding sources. These issues have contributed to a decline in the party’s polling, with its average dropping to 24% after Nigel Farage announced his resignation and subsequent bid for re-election in Clacton.
In the Manchester by-election, Reform’s share of the vote fell significantly, losing ground to smaller parties such as Restore Britain, which has emerged as a competitor, claiming nearly 9% of the vote. This internal strife within Reform has undoubtedly assisted Labour in regaining its footing.
Shifting Voter Allegiances
Burnham’s bounce is marked by a recovery of support from former Labour voters who had previously defected to the Greens and Liberal Democrats. Since his leadership election, Labour has seen an uptick of 10% in support from those who voted for the party in 2024. Meanwhile, the Greens have suffered a decline, down to 11%, as many of their voters revert to Labour.
However, the Conservatives, led by Kemi Badenoch, are not without their own gains. The party has edged up to 20% in the polls, indicating that while Labour is recovering, the political landscape remains competitive and fluid.
Why it Matters
Burnham’s leadership presents a vital opportunity for Labour to reclaim its traditional base and rekindle voter trust ahead of the next general election. Yet, the party must navigate significant challenges, including restoring confidence among pro-Brexit working-class voters who have shifted their allegiance to Reform. The effectiveness of Burnham’s policies will ultimately determine whether Labour can maintain its recent momentum and position itself as a credible alternative come 2029.
