In the wake of Andy Burnham’s ascent to the leadership of the Labour Party, recent opinion polls indicate a notable uptick in support for the party, often referred to as the “Burnham bounce.” This trend was further validated by Labour’s decisive win in the Greater Manchester mayoral by-election held on Thursday. While Labour currently enjoys the highest approval ratings it has seen since early last year, the party faces significant hurdles before it can confidently approach the next general election.
The ‘Burnham Bounce’ Explained
Since Burnham assumed the role of Prime Minister nearly two weeks ago, the party’s standing in the polls has consistently improved, with recent figures placing Labour in the mid-20s percentage-wise. This marks a significant rise from the 19% recorded in late June, shortly before Sir Keir Starmer announced his resignation. Yet, despite this resurgence, Burnham’s Labour still trails behind Reform, which complicates their path towards a successful general election campaign.
Historically, the arrival of a new Prime Minister often correlates with a boost in popularity for the governing party. For instance, Gordon Brown saw a seven-point increase following Tony Blair’s departure in 2007, while Boris Johnson enjoyed a six-point rise when he took over from Theresa May in 2019. However, Burnham’s situation is unique, as he has inherited a party that was already in a precarious position; Labour’s 19% rating upon Starmer’s resignation was the lowest mid-term handover recorded.
A Convincing Mayoral Victory
Burnham’s recent success in the Manchester mayoral by-election, where Labour secured 47% of the first preference votes, reflects this renewed optimism. Although this figure is a decline from the 63% Burnham achieved in the last mayoral election prior to the 2024 general election, it still demonstrates a marked improvement from the 24% Labour garnered in the region during the May local elections. Notably, it surpasses the party’s 2024 general election performance—indicative of a favourable shift in voter sentiment.
However, the narrow lead over Reform suggests that Burnham is cautious about calling for an early election. The decline of Reform in the polls appears to stem more from internal challenges than from Labour’s resurgence. Reform has faced scrutiny regarding the legality of its funding sources and the announcement that leader Nigel Farage would step down and seek re-election in his Clacton constituency, which has likely contributed to the party’s recent decline in support.
The Competition: Reform’s Struggles and Green Party Declines
Reform’s troubles are compounded by a significant fall in its poll ratings, dropping from 27% to 24% following Farage’s announcement. This marks the lowest level of support the party has seen in over a year. In the Manchester by-election, Reform’s share of the first preference votes declined by nine points compared to its earlier performance in the May local elections, partly due to the emergence of Rupert Lowe’s breakaway party, Restore Britain, which captured nearly 9% of the vote.
Additionally, Labour’s bounce has resulted in a noticeable drain of support from both the Green Party and the Liberal Democrats. The Greens, who previously attracted disenchanted Labour voters, have seen their approval ratings dip to 11%, a four-point reduction since the announcement of Starmer’s departure. Among 2024 Labour voters, the number considering the Greens has dropped from 14% to 9%. This shift highlights the importance of Burnham’s strategy to reclaim lost support from former Labour constituents.
Looking Ahead: Challenges for Burnham
While Burnham’s elevation has instilled a sense of hope within Labour, the party must still grapple with the need to reconnect with working-class pro-Brexit voters who have shifted their allegiance to Reform. The path to victory in the next general election hinges on Burnham’s ability to deliver on pressing policy challenges and demonstrate tangible progress on issues that affect voters’ lives.
As Labour aims for a brighter future under Burnham’s leadership, the party’s electoral prospects will ultimately depend on whether it can translate the current bounce in support into sustained commitment from the electorate. The upcoming months will be crucial in determining if Burnham can solidify Labour’s position and navigate the turbulent political landscape effectively.
Why it Matters
The dynamics of the current political landscape underscore the intricate balance of power among the UK’s major parties. Burnham’s initial success represents a pivotal moment for Labour, rekindling hopes among its supporters. However, as new challenges emerge, the party’s ability to maintain momentum will be critical. The coming weeks and months will reveal if Labour can effectively harness this “Burnham bounce” to reclaim its status as a formidable force in British politics, particularly as it looks towards the next general election.
