Labour’s recent resurgence, dubbed the “Burnham bounce,” has been solidified by a decisive win in the Greater Manchester mayoral by-election. Polls show Labour’s popularity has surged to levels not seen since early last year, yet the party remains wary of potential pitfalls as it gears up for future elections.
The Polls: A Glimmer of Hope
Since Andy Burnham’s ascension to Prime Minister two weeks ago, the party’s fortunes have notably improved. Recent surveys indicate Labour’s support hovering in the mid-20s, a significant rise from the dismal 19% recorded in late June when Sir Keir Starmer announced his resignation. This boost is Labour’s highest rating in over a year, but it is tempered by the fact that Reform UK is hot on their heels.
Historically, new prime ministers often experience a temporary spike in approval ratings. For instance, Gordon Brown saw a seven-point increase after taking over from Tony Blair in 2007, while Boris Johnson enjoyed a six-point lift upon succeeding Theresa May in 2019. The only exception in recent memory was Liz Truss, whose tenure was marked by turmoil and ultimately failed to generate any positive momentum for the Conservatives.
Labour’s Path Forward
Despite the optimism surrounding the “Burnham bounce,” the reality is that Labour faces a steep uphill battle. The 19% rating left by Starmer was the lowest recorded for a new leader stepping into the role mid-term, trailing even the 23% handed over by Truss. This context makes Burnham’s bounce more of a recovery than a breakthrough.
Labour’s recent win in the Manchester mayoral by-election, where the party secured 47% of the first preference votes, is indeed encouraging. Although this figure is a drop from the 63% Burnham achieved in the last mayoral race before the 2024 general election, it marks a significant improvement from the 24% Labour secured in the May local elections. Notably, this recent performance exceeds Labour’s 2024 general election tally in the region, suggesting a positive trend in voter sentiment.
Reform UK: A Party in Turmoil
However, Burnham’s victory comes amid a challenging landscape for Reform UK. The party’s decline seems to stem more from its internal issues than from Labour’s newfound popularity. Recent controversies surrounding funding and the leadership of Nigel Farage have rocked the party, leading to a dip in its polling numbers.
Before Farage’s announcement to step down and run again for his Clacton seat, Reform was polling at 27%. Following the announcement, that figure plummeted to 24%, its lowest point in over a year. In the Manchester by-election, Reform’s support dropped nine points from its earlier performance in May, further underscoring its current vulnerabilities.
A Shift in Voter Alliances
Interestingly, the “Burnham bounce” appears to be drawing support away primarily from the Greens and the Liberal Democrats. Both parties have seen a two-point drop in voter support since Burnham’s leadership began. The Greens, in particular, are feeling the sting; they have lost significant backing from former Labour voters, dropping from 14% to just 9% among those who voted Labour in 2024.
With Labour now reclaiming a majority of its former voters—67% of those who backed the party in 2024 indicate they would do so again—Burnham seems to be making headway. However, the Conservatives are also gaining ground, edging up to 20% in the polls, reflecting a competitive and fluid political landscape.
Why it Matters
As Andy Burnham seeks to navigate the complexities of leadership and policy implementation, the stakes are high. His ability to unite disillusioned voters—particularly those from working-class, pro-Brexit backgrounds—will be pivotal for Labour’s success in the next general election. The “Burnham bounce” offers a window of opportunity, but sustaining momentum will require tangible results and a coherent strategy to address the pressing challenges facing the UK. If Burnham can effectively bridge the gap between Labour’s traditional base and new supporters, he may well set the stage for a stronger electoral future.
