The political landscape is shifting as Labour, under the leadership of Andy Burnham, capitalises on a notable uptick in support, commonly referred to as the “Burnham bounce.” This surge follows Burnham’s recent victory in the Greater Manchester mayoral by-election, signalling a potential revival for the party that has struggled in the polls.
A Boost in the Polls
Recent opinion polls indicate that Labour’s support has jumped to the mid-20s, marking its highest standing since early 2023. This increase is particularly striking when compared to the 19% approval rating Labour recorded in late June, just before former leader Sir Keir Starmer stepped down.
However, while the bounce is significant, it is essential to note that Reform UK is trailing closely behind, leaving Labour with an uphill battle as it gears up for the next general election. The current numbers reflect a party attempting to regain its footing after a tumultuous period marked by Starmer’s resignation.
The New PM Effect
Historically, new prime ministers often experience a surge in popularity. Burnham’s rise is in line with this trend, reminiscent of past leadership changes. For instance, Gordon Brown saw a seven-point increase in support after taking over from Tony Blair, while Boris Johnson enjoyed a six-point boost upon succeeding Theresa May. The only exception was Liz Truss, whose brief tenure was overshadowed by national tragedy.
Despite this upward movement, Burnham inherits a challenging scenario; Labour’s previous low of 19% was the worst poll rating passed on by any mid-term prime minister. Hence, while the bounce is a positive sign, it highlights the substantial work Burnham must undertake to solidify Labour’s position.
Manchester Victory and Its Implications
Burnham’s recent success in the Greater Manchester mayoral by-election, where Labour garnered 47% of the first preference votes, showcases the party’s potential resurgence. Although this figure is a decline from the 63% Burnham achieved in the previous mayoral election, it significantly exceeds the 24% Labour received in the region during the recent local elections.
This uptick not only reflects a recovery from May’s dismal results but also suggests that Labour’s performance may exceed expectations based on national polling, providing a glimmer of hope for Burnham’s leadership.
Challenges for Reform and Other Parties
Despite Labour’s bounce, the party’s lead over Reform remains precarious. Reform’s difficulties have been compounded by recent controversies surrounding the legality of its funding, leading to a drop in support. Following Nigel Farage’s announcement to stand down amidst these controversies, Reform’s poll rating fell from 27% to 24%, its lowest figure in over a year.
Moreover, Labour’s bounce has primarily come at the expense of the Greens and Liberal Democrats, both of whom have lost ground since Burnham’s uncontested ascent to leadership. The Greens, in particular, have seen a significant decline, with their support dropping from 14% to 9% among former Labour voters.
While Kemi Badenoch’s Conservative Party has managed to stabilise its position, Burnham must focus on regaining the working-class, pro-Brexit voters who have drifted towards Reform. To secure a credible pathway to victory in the next general election, Labour needs to demonstrate tangible policy successes.
Why it Matters
The so-called “Burnham bounce” offers a critical opportunity for Labour to redefine its narrative and regain lost support. However, the party’s trajectory will depend on Burnham’s ability to navigate the complex political landscape and deliver on his promises. As voters remain sceptical, Burnham’s leadership will be tested in the coming months, making it essential for Labour to not only maintain its momentum but also effectively address the pressing issues facing the electorate.
