Labour’s fortunes appear to be on the rise following the appointment of Andy Burnham as Prime Minister, commonly referred to as the ‘Burnham bounce.’ This development has been underscored by a solid victory in the recent Greater Manchester mayoral by-election, signalling a potential resurgence for the party, which suffered a significant drop in support under former leader Sir Keir Starmer.
Polls Reflect Shift in Public Sentiment
In recent polling, Labour is enjoying an average rating in the mid-20s, marking the highest level of support since early 2026. This is a notable improvement from the 19% recorded just before Starmer’s resignation. The party’s recent success in the Greater Manchester mayoral race, where it secured 47% of the first preference votes, further bolsters this optimism. While this figure is down from the impressive 63% achieved by Burnham in the last mayoral contest before the 2024 general election, it represents a significant recovery from the 24% Labour garnered during local elections earlier this year.
However, Burnham’s party still faces hurdles. Reform UK is trailing Labour closely, which has prompted Burnham to dismiss the idea of calling an early election. The current political landscape is fragile, with Labour needing to consolidate its gains while addressing the challenges posed by Reform’s recent controversies.
The Context of the Bounce
Historically, new Prime Ministers often experience a boost in popularity shortly after taking office. For instance, Gordon Brown saw a seven-point increase in Labour support after succeeding Tony Blair in 2007, while Boris Johnson enjoyed a six-point lift upon taking over from Theresa May in 2019. Burnham’s bounce, although noteworthy, comes in the context of a precarious situation for Labour. The party’s poll rating when Starmer resigned was the lowest recorded for any mid-term Prime Minister, even lower than the 23% that Liz Truss left behind after her brief tenure.
Despite these challenges, Burnham’s leadership seems to be rekindling some faith among Labour supporters. The recent by-election results indicate that 67% of those who voted Labour in 2024 are now inclined to support the party again, a significant rise from 57% prior to Burnham’s ascension.
Reform Faces Its Own Troubles
The picture for Reform UK is less rosy. Recent allegations regarding the legality of funding sources have clouded the party’s standing. Leader Nigel Farage, amid growing scrutiny, announced his intention to stand down and contest a by-election in Clacton scheduled for August 13. This decision appears to have backfired, as Reform’s polling figures plummeted from 27% to 24%, marking their lowest rating in 15 months.
In the Greater Manchester mayoral by-election, Reform’s share of the vote fell significantly, further diminishing its position. The emergence of the new political group Restore Britain, which attracted nearly 9% of the vote, has compounded Reform’s problems, highlighting the fragmentation of support within the right-wing electorate.
Greens and Liberal Democrats Suffer Losses
The Labour bounce has not only affected Reform but also eroded support for the Greens and Liberal Democrats. Both parties have seen a two-point decrease in their polling since Burnham’s leadership began. The Greens, in particular, have suffered, with their backing now at 11%, a notable drop from the 14% support they enjoyed when Starmer announced his departure. This shift underscores Labour’s renewed appeal to disenchanted former voters.
Burnham’s challenge will be to not only retain this support but also to reclaim the working-class pro-Brexit voters who once formed the backbone of Labour’s electoral strength. This demographic has increasingly leaned towards Reform, making it crucial for Burnham to articulate compelling policies that resonate with these constituents.
Why it Matters
The implications of Burnham’s bounce are significant for Labour as it navigates the complexities of the current political landscape. While the party is experiencing a resurgence, the road ahead is fraught with challenges. Rebuilding trust and support among traditional Labour voters is essential for a successful campaign in the next general election. Burnham’s ability to deliver on his promises and address the pressing issues facing the country will ultimately determine whether this bounce translates into sustainable electoral success or if it will be a fleeting moment in a tumultuous political environment.