The Green Party is setting its sights on a potential upset in the North Vancouver-Capilano by-election, scheduled for August 31, as it campaigns against recent rollbacks of climate policies by the Liberal government. Party leader Elizabeth May believes that the upcoming election could be a pivotal moment for the Greens, particularly with the candidacy of Shelley Luce, an environmental scientist and former adviser to the City of North Vancouver.
Green Candidate: Shelley Luce
Shelley Luce, who holds a doctorate from UCLA, has been selected to represent the Greens in this crucial by-election. Despite the party’s historical struggle in the riding—having only secured third place in 2008 and 2015, and a mere 12 per cent of the vote in 2019—May remains optimistic. She argues that recent governmental projects, particularly those affecting the local environment, might sway public opinion in favour of the Greens.
“There are several factors working in our favour, not least the array of projects being pushed through that encroach upon the shores of North Vancouver,” May remarked. She referred specifically to the federal government’s approval of dredging in Vancouver’s Burrard Inlet to accommodate larger oil tankers associated with the Trans Mountain pipeline. This project has raised alarm among environmentalists about its potential impact on local wildlife and ecosystems.
The Political Landscape
The urgency of this by-election follows the resignation of Jonathan Wilkinson, the former natural resources minister, who vacated the North Vancouver-Capilano seat after being appointed as Canada’s ambassador to the European Union. His departure has opened the door for fresh competition, with the Liberals nominating Braeden Caley, a former deputy chief of staff to Carney, while the Conservatives have once again fielded lawyer Stephen Curran, who came in second last year.
While May expresses confidence in Luce’s candidacy, she acknowledges the uncertainty surrounding the Greens’ chances. “It’s hardly a certainty that the Greens will win,” she stated. “However, this by-election offers a unique opportunity for voters to trial our candidate without a long-term commitment.”
Polling Insights
Despite the Green Party’s enthusiasm, polling experts remain sceptical about their prospects in this particular riding. Éric Grenier, a polling analyst, voiced his doubts, suggesting that while the party could see an improvement in their vote share, winning the seat seems unlikely. “I think there’s a chance that the party could have a decent enough result. However, in the current context, it would be quite a surprise for the Greens to pull this off,” he explained.
Grenier noted that while the Greens have previously surprised analysts, such as with their recent victory in Prince Edward Island, the federal landscape presents a different challenge. “The Greens have some ridings where they have a shot at winning. But I really don’t think that this one is one,” he concluded.
Leadership Race Concurrent with By-Election
As the by-election approaches, the Green Party is also navigating an internal leadership race. Nominations for leadership closed on July 17, and the party will soon unveil its full list of candidates. This dual focus on both leadership and electoral success presents a unique challenge for the party, which must balance internal dynamics with the urgent need to connect with voters in North Vancouver-Capilano.
Why it Matters
The outcome of the North Vancouver-Capilano by-election could significantly influence the political landscape in British Columbia, especially in the context of rising environmental concerns. Should the Green Party manage to secure a seat, it would reflect a growing public dissatisfaction with the current government’s climate policies and could propel the party into a more influential position within Canadian politics. As the nation grapples with pressing environmental issues, this election may serve as a litmus test for the electorate’s commitment to sustainable governance.