In a surprising turn of events, Green Party Leader Elizabeth May is expressing optimism about the party’s chances in the North Vancouver-Capilano by-election, scheduled for August 31. With a campaign focused on the Liberal government’s recent rollbacks of climate policies, May believes the Greens could disrupt the status quo in a riding that has traditionally eluded them. The party has nominated Shelley Luce, an environmental scientist and former adviser to the City of North Vancouver, as their candidate.
The Candidate: Shelley Luce
Shelley Luce brings a wealth of experience to the table. With a doctorate from UCLA and a background in environmental science, she is well-positioned to address the pressing concerns of voters in a region grappling with climate change. Despite the Green Party’s historical challenges in the riding—where they have only managed third-place finishes in the 2008 and 2015 elections, and a mere 12 per cent of the vote in 2019—May is bullish about their prospects for this by-election.
“There are several factors that play in our favour, including the numerous projects being pushed through that directly impact the shores of North Vancouver,” May stated. This sentiment reflects a growing discontent with the Liberal government’s environmental policies, particularly among voters increasingly aware of climate issues.
The Political Landscape
The North Vancouver-Capilano seat opened up following the appointment of former natural resources minister Jonathan Wilkinson as Canada’s ambassador to the European Union. The Liberal Party has selected Braeden Caley, who previously served as Wilkinson’s deputy chief of staff, to contest the seat. The Conservative Party is fielding lawyer Stephen Curran, who secured second place in the last election with approximately a third of the votes.
May acknowledges the uphill battle ahead, noting, “It’s hardly in the bag that Greens are going to win. But Greens could win in North Vancouver-Capilano, and part of it is the strength of our candidate.” She emphasises that a by-election allows voters to trial a new MP with minimal long-term commitment, suggesting, “If you don’t like the job Shelly Luce has been doing for you as your MP, well, you’ve got at most a three-year, risk-free, money-back guarantee.”
Skepticism Among Polling Experts
Despite May’s enthusiasm, some analysts remain sceptical about the Greens’ chances. Éric Grenier, a polling expert from The Writ, remarked, “To win the seat? No. I think there’s a chance that the party could have a decent enough result… but in the current context, it would be quite a surprise for the Greens to be able to pull that off.” He pointed out that while the Greens have experienced some successes in provincial by-elections, their federal support in British Columbia hovers around five per cent, making a victory in a riding with over 100,000 voters particularly challenging.
Grenier added that while the Greens have some ridings where they could fairly contest, North Vancouver-Capilano is not one of them. This reflects a broader trend where the party has struggled to maintain momentum since their peak in previous elections.
The Bigger Picture: Party Dynamics and Future Goals
As the Green Party prepares for the by-election, they are simultaneously navigating a leadership race, with nominations closing on July 17. The outcome of this internal contest may influence the party’s strategy and morale as they head into the polls.
May’s confidence, however, might be bolstered by recent surprises in other political arenas. Earlier this month, a Green candidate in Prince Edward Island defeated the provincial Liberal leader, a sign that the party’s fortunes can shift unexpectedly. Nonetheless, the dynamics at the federal level remain distinctly different.
Why it Matters
The North Vancouver-Capilano by-election serves as a pivotal moment for the Green Party, potentially shaping their future direction in federal politics. With climate change at the forefront of national discourse, the outcome could signal a shift in voter sentiment and party strategy. If the Greens manage to secure a significant portion of the vote, it could reinvigorate their support base and redefine their role in Canadian politics. Conversely, a disappointing result may further entrench their challenges as they grapple with declining visibility and relevance in a competitive landscape.
