As the political landscape heats up in the lead-up to the North Vancouver-Capilano by-election on August 31, Green Party Leader Elizabeth May has expressed optimism about her party’s potential for an unexpected victory. This confidence stems largely from the recent rollbacks of climate policies by the Liberal government, which May believes could resonate with environmentally conscious voters in the riding.
A Strong Candidate in the Spotlight
The Green Party has nominated Shelley Luce, an environmental scientist with a doctorate from UCLA and a former adviser to the City of North Vancouver. Luce represents a shift in strategy for the Greens, who have historically struggled in this riding, achieving their best results—a pair of third-place finishes—in 2008 and 2015. In the 2019 election, they secured only 12 per cent of the vote, which was insufficient for anything beyond fourth place.
May is banking on the recent decisions from the federal government to sway public sentiment. “There are several factors playing in our favour, particularly the ongoing projects that are being pushed through, directly impacting the shores of North Vancouver,” she noted, pointing to the controversial approval of dredging in Vancouver’s Burrard Inlet to facilitate larger oil tankers.
Controversial Climate Policies
The dredging project, first proposed by Prime Minister Mark Carney for 2025, has sparked significant backlash from environmental advocates concerned about its effects on local wildlife. May argues that the Liberal government’s stance on such projects could alienate voters who are passionate about climate issues, giving the Green Party a more compelling narrative to campaign on.
The by-election was necessitated by former Natural Resources Minister Jonathan Wilkinson’s appointment as Canada’s ambassador to the European Union, prompting the call for a new representative. The Liberal Party has selected Braeden Caley, Carney’s former deputy chief of staff, to contest the seat. Meanwhile, the Conservatives have re-nominated lawyer Stephen Curran, who garnered a respectable third of the votes in the last election, finishing behind Wilkinson.
The Challenge Ahead for the Greens
Despite May’s enthusiasm, political analysts urge caution. Éric Grenier, a polling expert with The Writ, suggests that the Greens face an uphill battle. “To win the seat? No,” he stated firmly. While Grenier acknowledges that the party may achieve a stronger showing than in previous elections, he maintains that a victory remains unlikely given the current political climate in British Columbia, where the Greens are polling around five per cent.
Furthermore, Grenier highlighted the stark difference between winning a small district with a few thousand voters and securing a seat in a densely populated riding like North Vancouver-Capilano, which comprises approximately 100,000 constituents. “The Greens have pockets where they can compete effectively. However, I really don’t believe this is one of them,” he concluded.
A Parallel Leadership Race
As the Green Party pivots its focus towards the upcoming by-elections, it is simultaneously navigating a leadership contest. With nominations closing on July 17, the announcement of candidates is anticipated imminently. This dual focus poses both opportunities and challenges for the party as it seeks to solidify its position within the Canadian political framework.
Why it Matters
The outcome of the North Vancouver-Capilano by-election could serve as a litmus test for the Green Party’s relevance in federal politics, especially in the wake of significant climate policy debates. With environmental issues at the forefront of public discourse, the Greens are hoping to capitalise on discontent with the governing Liberals. Should they achieve a surprising result, it could reinvigorate the party’s base and reshape the narrative surrounding climate action in Canada. Conversely, a disappointing outcome may further entrench perceptions of the Greens as a marginal party, complicating their future electoral prospects.