In a significant turn of events, Labour appears to be riding a wave of renewed support, often referred to as the “Burnham bounce.” This surge follows the appointment of Andy Burnham as Prime Minister, confirmed by the party’s strong performance in the recent Greater Manchester mayoral by-election. While Labour’s numbers are improving, challenges loom on the horizon, particularly from the Reform party, which finds itself in a precarious position.
A Promising Start for Burnham
Since Burnham ascended to the premiership nearly two weeks ago, opinion polls indicate a noticeable uptick in Labour’s standing, now averaging in the mid-20s. This marks the party’s highest rating since early last year, a stark contrast to the 19% figure seen in late June when Keir Starmer announced his resignation.
However, while the bounce is encouraging, it’s essential to remember the steep hill Labour must climb. Burnham has inherited a party grappling with a historically low base, as the 19% rating at the time of Starmer’s departure was the weakest for a mid-term prime minister in recent memory.
The Impact of the By-Election
Labour’s recent victory in the Manchester mayoral by-election, where the party secured 47% of the first preference vote, showcases this newfound momentum. Although this is a decline from Burnham’s impressive 63% in the previous election, it represents a significant improvement from the 24% garnered in May’s local elections. Notably, this figure surpasses the 43% Labour received during the 2024 general election, highlighting a rebound in local support.
Despite this success, Burnham is cautious about calling an early general election, particularly as Reform continues to poll closely behind Labour. The party’s recent struggles—stemming from controversies surrounding its funding sources—have contributed to Labour’s resurgence.
Reform’s Troubles
Reform is facing a dual crisis. Following Nigel Farage’s announcement to step down and contest a by-election in Clacton, the party’s support has waned. Prior to his announcement, Reform enjoyed a 27% polling average, but this plummeted to 24% in the wake of the news, marking the lowest it has been in 15 months.
Additionally, Reform’s performance in the Manchester by-election saw a decline, with its share of the vote down by nine points compared to previous local elections. The emergence of Rupert Lowe’s breakaway party, Restore Britain, which attracted nearly 9% of the vote, further complicates Reform’s position.
Labour’s Strategy and The Road Ahead
On the flip side, Labour’s bounce appears to have drawn support away from the Greens and Liberal Democrats, both of whom have seen their numbers dip since Burnham’s leadership began. The Greens, in particular, have been adversely affected, with their support dropping from 14% to 9% among those who previously voted Labour in 2024.
For Burnham to solidify his party’s resurgence, he must reconnect with working-class voters who have shifted towards Reform. The next general election, set for 2029, will hinge on whether Burnham can translate this short-term boost into sustained electoral success.
Why it Matters
The current political landscape in Britain is shifting, with Labour’s resurgence signalling a potential realignment of voter loyalties. As Burnham seeks to consolidate support and navigate the challenges posed by Reform, the implications for the next general election are profound. If Labour can maintain its momentum and address the concerns of its traditional base, it may well redefine the political narrative leading up to 2029, reshaping the future of British politics.