Green Party Leader Elizabeth May is optimistic about her party’s prospects in the North Vancouver-Capilano by-election set for August 31. She believes that the Greens could leverage public discontent over recent Liberal rollbacks of environmental policies to secure an unexpected victory.
Strong Candidate and Shifting Dynamics
The Green Party has selected Shelley Luce, a seasoned environmental scientist with a PhD from UCLA and a former adviser to the City of North Vancouver, to contest the by-election. Historically, the Greens have struggled in this riding, with their most notable results being third-place finishes in both 2008 and 2015. In the 2019 federal election, the party managed only 12 per cent of the vote, placing fourth.
May is confident that factors are aligning in the party’s favour, particularly due to the federal government’s approval of controversial projects that impact the local environment. “There’s a number of things that pivot in our favour, including the number of projects that are getting rammed through that, geographically, they butt right up against the shores of North Vancouver,” she stated.
Among those projects is the recent approval for the dredging of Vancouver’s Burrard Inlet, facilitating larger oil tankers to load from the Trans Mountain pipeline. This initiative, originally proposed by Prime Minister Mark Carney, has raised alarms among environmental advocates concerned about its effects on local wildlife.
Competitive Landscape in North Vancouver-Capilano
The by-election was triggered by former natural resources minister Jonathan Wilkinson’s appointment as Canada’s ambassador to the European Union. The Liberal Party has chosen Braeden Caley, Carney’s former deputy chief of staff, to contest the seat. Meanwhile, the Conservatives are fielding Stephen Curran, a lawyer who came in second to Wilkinson in the last election, securing about a third of the vote.
Despite the optimistic rhetoric from May, she recognised the inherent uncertainty of the electoral landscape. “It’s hardly in the bag that Greens are going to win,” she remarked. May emphasised the significance of their candidate’s strengths, highlighting the potential for voters to use the by-election as a “risk-free tryout” for Luce as their MP.
Polling Insights and Party Dynamics
Pollster Éric Grenier of The Writ offered a more cautious perspective on the Greens’ chances. He remarked, “To win the seat? No,” suggesting that while there might be an opportunity for the party to perform decently, a victory would be surprising given the current circumstances.
He acknowledged that the Greens had exceeded expectations in a recent provincial by-election, where candidate Tayte Willows triumphed over P.E.I. Liberal Leader Robert Mitchell. However, Grenier noted that federally, the Greens are currently polling around five per cent support in British Columbia, underscoring the challenges they face in a riding with a significantly larger voter base.
“There’s a big difference between winning a district that has a few thousand voters versus winning a riding in B.C. that has 100,000 voters,” he explained, cautioning against overestimating the party’s chances in North Vancouver-Capilano.
As the Greens intensify their campaign efforts for the upcoming by-elections, they are concurrently navigating a leadership race. Nominations closed on July 17, with a complete list of candidates to be unveiled soon.
Why it Matters
The North Vancouver-Capilano by-election represents a critical juncture for the Green Party, not only as a potential gain in a traditionally challenging riding but also as a litmus test for public sentiment around environmental issues. As climate concerns escalate and the political landscape shifts, the outcome of this election could signal broader trends affecting the party’s future and the government’s approach to environmental policy. If the Greens can galvanise support on the back of growing climate awareness, it may reshape the conversation around environmental stewardship in Canada, compelling other parties to reconsider their strategies ahead of the next general election.