As the world braces for the imminent impacts of a developing El Niño, forecasts suggest that up to 50 million people may face acute hunger by the end of next year. This alarming statistic comes from the United Nations’ World Food Programme (WFP), which highlights the escalating crisis in the context of existing severe food shortages that currently affect hundreds of millions globally.
Escalating Food Insecurity
The ramifications of this year’s El Niño, a recurrent weather phenomenon originating in the Pacific Ocean, are expected to be particularly severe in Central and South America, the Caribbean, and southern Africa. These regions, already grappling with years of drought and rising food prices exacerbated by geopolitical tensions such as the conflict in Iran, are likely to see conditions worsen significantly.
The WFP has identified 45 countries where 225 million people are already experiencing acute food insecurity. The anticipated effects of El Niño could push this number significantly higher, with forecasts indicating that even a moderate El Niño could lead to a 20% increase in the number of people at risk.
A Super El Niño on the Horizon
Experts describe the impending El Niño as potentially the strongest in over 70 years, with some referring to it as a “super El Niño.” While this term lacks formal recognition, its implications are undeniably serious. Climate change is intricately linked to the intensity and impact of this weather phenomenon, raising concerns that global temperatures could reach unprecedented levels in the coming years.
The WFP’s recent report is notable for its focus on the global hunger crisis, providing a stark reminder of the interconnectedness of weather patterns and food security. The organisation has allocated at least $80 million (£60 million) for anticipatory relief efforts, aiming to mitigate the adverse effects of this extreme weather.
Southern Africa’s Lean Season
The full impact of El Niño will likely manifest during the 2027 to 2028 lean season in southern Africa, according to Richard Choularton, the WFP’s director of climate and resilience services. Farmers in this region will face the challenge of a main growing season that runs from October 2026 to March 2027, with the worst effects expected to be felt months later.
Encouragingly, last year’s harvest was relatively robust, providing some buffer for farmers. Jean-Martin Bauer, WFP’s director of food security, noted that food prices were stable at the end of 2025 before being pressured upwards by the ongoing conflict in the Middle East. However, the long-term outlook remains precarious as the situation continues to evolve.
Global Implications of Food Price Pressures
The repercussions of El Niño extend far beyond the immediate regions affected. Global food prices are expected to be under significant pressure, particularly if major exporting countries restrict their food exports. Bauer emphasised the importance of avoiding scenarios where large nations halt exports, as this could exacerbate food access issues in already vulnerable areas.
In the UK and Europe, farmers have raised alarm over how extreme weather, including heatwaves and droughts, is impacting their harvests. Retailers are preparing for potential increases in food prices as the ripple effects of El Niño are felt across the globe.
Why it Matters
The looming threat of El Niño represents a critical juncture for global food security. With millions already on the brink of hunger, the combination of extreme weather patterns and geopolitical tensions could lead to a humanitarian crisis of unprecedented scale. It underscores the urgent need for coordinated international efforts to bolster resilience against climate-induced food insecurity and ensure that vulnerable populations receive the support they need to navigate these challenging conditions.
