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As the El Niño weather phenomenon gathers momentum, the United Nations has issued a stark warning that approximately 50 million individuals could be plunged into acute hunger by the end of next year. This alarming projection comes on the heels of years of persistent drought in various African regions and escalating food prices exacerbated by geopolitical tensions, particularly the ongoing conflict in Iran. The situation is dire, with many nations already grappling with severe food insecurity.
The Scope of the Crisis
According to the World Food Programme (WFP), the looming El Niño is set to exacerbate conditions in 45 countries where around 225 million people are currently classified as being in acute food insecurity. The anticipated shifts in weather patterns are expected to have the most profound effects in Central and South America, the Caribbean, and southern Africa. In addition, countries in south and south-east Asia may face reduced rainfall, jeopardising agricultural output and threatening the livelihoods of countless farmers.
This year’s El Niño is predicted to be the most intense in over seven decades, with some experts referencing it as a “super El Niño,” a term that, while widely used, lacks official recognition. Its repercussions are expected to be magnified by the ongoing climate crisis, with predictions that it could contribute to record-breaking global temperatures, especially in 2027.
Economic Implications
Private sector analysts have already raised concerns regarding the potential impact of the developing El Niño on food prices worldwide. The WFP’s recent report marks the first comprehensive examination of how this weather pattern might influence global hunger levels. In anticipation of the adverse effects, the WFP has earmarked at least $80 million (£60 million) for early warning systems and anticipatory relief efforts. However, even with these measures in place, the scale of the crisis remains daunting.
Farmers, particularly in southern Africa, are likely to feel the strain as the main growing season will extend from October this year to March 2027. The most severe effects will, however, be felt during the subsequent lean season, predicted to peak in 2027. Richard Choularton, WFP’s director of the climate and resilience service, emphasised that this period will mark the most significant food security impact in the region.
While last year’s unusually fruitful harvest may provide some respite, rising food prices driven by the conflict in the Middle East are already exerting upward pressure on markets. Jean-Martin Bauer, WFP’s director of food security, noted that although the end of 2025 saw relatively stable prices, the current geopolitical climate complicates the outlook.
Historical Context and Future Outlook
Drawing parallels with the 2015-2016 El Niño episode, which affected between 60 million to 100 million people, the WFP is hopeful that its newly implemented anticipatory actions will mitigate the impact this time around. However, Choularton warned that data collection efforts have been hampered by funding shortages, which could impede effective response strategies.
The WFP’s analysis is centred on the 45 countries it operates within, where baseline food insecurity estimates are available. Nonetheless, the ramifications of the El Niño phenomenon may extend beyond these borders, impacting global food prices and access.
In the UK and across Europe, farmers are already sounding alarms over the effects of extreme heat and insufficient rainfall on their harvests, raising the spectre of rising food costs for consumers.
Why it Matters
The implications of the impending El Niño extend far beyond immediate hunger; they encompass broader economic stability and social cohesion. With millions at risk of acute hunger, the potential for increased migration, civil unrest, and further strain on international aid systems looms large. Thus, it becomes imperative for nations and organisations to act swiftly and collaboratively to address this impending crisis, ensuring that vulnerable populations receive the necessary support to weather the storm. The stakes are high, and the time to act is now.