As the impacts of the El Niño weather phenomenon intensify, United Nations experts warn that about 50 million individuals could face acute hunger by the close of next year. This alarming forecast highlights an already precarious situation for countless people in 45 nations grappling with severe food shortages due to protracted droughts and escalating food prices, particularly exacerbated by geopolitical tensions in regions such as the Middle East.
A Growing Crisis
The looming threat of El Niño is expected to deepen the crisis of food insecurity, which currently affects an estimated 225 million people globally. According to a recent report from the World Food Programme (WFP), this weather pattern is likely to exacerbate conditions in Central and South America, the Caribbean, and southern Africa, where agricultural output is already under siege due to erratic rainfall and prolonged dry spells.
The 2023-2024 El Niño event is anticipated to be one of the most severe in over 70 years, with some experts labelling it a “super El Niño.” While this term is not officially recognised, its potential to alter global weather patterns significantly is undeniable. The implications of this phenomenon could be compounded by the ongoing climate crisis, as scientists have indicated that a robust El Niño could lead to unprecedented global temperatures, potentially marking 2027 as one of the hottest years on record.
A Strained Agricultural Landscape
The WFP’s report details that the agricultural sectors in countries impacted by El Niño may suffer extensive consequences. Farmers in southern Africa, for example, are likely to experience deteriorating conditions during the lean season, which extends from October 2026 to March 2027. Richard Choularton, director of the WFP’s climate and resilience service, stated, “The biggest food security impact, in southern Africa, will be during the 2027 to 2028 lean season.” This projection is alarming, as it suggests that farmers may struggle to recover from the adverse effects of the weather phenomenon, particularly since they might deplete their food supplies over multiple seasons.
While some farmers may benefit from the residual effects of last year’s harvest, which was notably productive, the upward pressure on food prices from ongoing conflicts in the Middle East complicates the situation. Jean-Martin Bauer, WFP’s director of food security, noted, “At the end of 2025, food prices were in favourable ranges, though there has been upward pressure from the war in the Middle East.”
Forecasting and Preparedness Challenges
The WFP has allocated a budget of at least $80 million to implement early warning systems and anticipatory relief efforts aimed at mitigating the adverse effects of El Niño. However, the organisation faces significant challenges due to insufficient data collection, which has been curtailed by funding shortages. This lack of information hampers their ability to provide accurate assessments of food insecurity in the 45 countries they monitor, and it raises concerns about the potential repercussions in regions not included in their analysis.
The historical context of previous El Niño events underscores the severity of the current situation. During the 2015-2016 El Niño, between 60 million and 100 million individuals were affected by acute food insecurity. However, with the implementation of updated anticipatory actions, WFP officials remain cautiously optimistic that impacts this time may be less severe, despite the potential intensity of the current El Niño.
Economic Ramifications
The implications of this weather phenomenon extend beyond immediate food supply concerns. As global food prices face upward pressure, the repercussions will likely be felt in Europe and the UK, where farmers are already reporting significant effects from extreme heat and insufficient rainfall. Retailers should brace themselves for potential price hikes, which could further strain consumers already grappling with inflation.
Bauer noted that the interplay of decisions made by exporting nations will be critical in determining global food prices. “It’s very important to avoid a situation where large countries stop food exports,” he cautioned. Such actions could lead to regional price spikes and accessibility issues, compounding the already dire food insecurity faced by millions.
Why it Matters
The unfolding El Niño phenomenon serves as a stark reminder of the interconnectedness of climate events and global food security. As millions stand on the precipice of hunger, the need for proactive and coordinated efforts to address these challenges cannot be overstated. The implications of this crisis reach far beyond the immediate impacts on agriculture; they threaten social stability, economic security, and public health on a global scale. As we brace for the effects of this powerful weather system, it is imperative that nations come together to combat the impending challenges and safeguard the most vulnerable populations from the scourge of hunger.