As the El Niño weather phenomenon intensifies, an alarming projection from the United Nations indicates that around 50 million individuals may face acute hunger by the end of next year. This situation exacerbates the already dire food insecurity experienced by hundreds of millions globally, particularly in regions that have suffered from prolonged droughts and rising food prices due to geopolitical tensions.
The Impending Crisis
El Niño, a climatic event that alters rainfall patterns across the globe, is forecast to be the most potent in nearly 70 years. Even should its effects be less severe than anticipated, the UN’s World Food Programme (WFP) warns that it could still push an additional 20% of the 225 million people currently in acute food insecurity into dire conditions. Regions such as Central and South America, the Caribbean, and southern Africa are predicted to bear the brunt of this crisis, while agricultural sectors in South and South-East Asia may also suffer significantly due to reduced rainfall.
The impacts of this year’s El Niño are being amplified by ongoing climate change, with experts predicting that it could contribute to record-high global temperatures, either this year or in 2027. The situation remains fluid, as private sector forecasts already hint at rising global food prices, while the WFP’s report specifically focuses on the escalating hunger crisis.
Agricultural Implications
The WFP aims to mitigate the potential fallout through early warning systems and anticipatory relief efforts, with a budget of at least $80 million earmarked for these initiatives. However, the consequences of El Niño are expected to be far-reaching. Farmers may struggle to replenish their supplies for more than one season, especially in southern Africa, where the main growing season spans from October 2026 to March 2027. The most severe impacts are anticipated to occur during the subsequent lean season, stretching into 2028.
Richard Choularton, the WFP’s director of climate and resilience services, highlights the critical timeline: “The biggest food security impact, in southern Africa, will be during the 2027 to 2028 lean season.” While farmers may benefit from the favourable harvest of the previous year, challenges loom, particularly from rising food prices influenced by ongoing conflicts, such as the war in the Middle East.
Historical Context and Future Outlook
Reflecting on past events, during the 2015-2016 El Niño, between 60 to 100 million people faced acute food insecurity. At that time, the WFP lacked the anticipatory strategies it has now implemented, which may help to lessen the impact of this year’s extreme weather conditions. However, Choularton notes that a lack of reliable data collection hampers effective response efforts, as funding constraints have limited vital information-gathering activities.
The WFP’s analysis focuses on the 45 countries within its operational purview, where baseline food insecurity data is accessible. However, the ramifications of El Niño could extend beyond these areas, potentially affecting global food prices and access. Jean-Martin Bauer, the WFP’s director of food security, emphasises that the decisions made by major food-exporting nations will play a crucial role in shaping the global food landscape.
Regional Considerations
In Europe, especially the UK, farmers are already raising concerns over the impact of extreme heat and insufficient rainfall on their harvests, signalling potential price increases for consumers. The interconnected nature of global food supply chains means that the effects of El Niño will likely ripple through economies, impacting not just food availability but also market stability.
Why it Matters
The looming food security crisis driven by the El Niño phenomenon underscores the urgent need for coordinated international efforts to address the multifaceted challenges of climate change, agricultural resilience, and geopolitical stability. As millions face the spectre of hunger, the global community must mobilise resources and strategies to prevent a humanitarian disaster that could resonate across borders and affect the most vulnerable populations worldwide. The implications of this crisis extend beyond immediate food shortages, threatening social stability, economic development, and the very framework of global cooperation in tackling hunger.