In a significant move that could reshape Canada’s military aviation landscape, the government is contemplating a partnership with Swedish aerospace giant Saab to manufacture the Gripen E-series fighter jet and the GlobalEye surveillance aircraft within Canada’s borders. This initiative is projected to generate approximately 12,600 jobs, according to Saab. However, the potential shift in procurement strategy raises concerns about possible retaliatory tariffs from U.S. President Donald Trump, particularly in light of Canada’s existing order for F-35 stealth fighter jets.
A Bold Proposition from Saab
The proposal to produce the Gripen and GlobalEye in Canada has garnered attention from several key figures in Prime Minister Mark Carney’s cabinet, including Industry Minister Mélanie Joly. A senior political source, speaking confidentially, indicated that the likelihood of a deal with Saab has surged to 85 per cent from a mere 50 per cent or less prior to last autumn. This optimism reflects the government’s desire to enhance domestic capabilities while reducing reliance on foreign military technology.
The Trump Factor
The prospect of developing the Gripen jet comes with significant geopolitical implications. Should Canada proceed with this plan, it could provoke a fierce backlash from Trump, who has previously reacted with tariffs and sanctions when he perceives threats to U.S. interests. The administration’s displeasure could stem from Canada’s decision to scale back its F-35 order, a move that would not only affect U.S. defence contractors but also challenge the longstanding military collaboration between the two nations.
Trump’s recent threats to impose a 50 per cent levy on Canadian-made aircraft underscore the volatility of the current trade environment. Following a dispute over the certification of U.S.-made Gulfstream jets by Transport Canada, Trump’s ire has been directed towards Canada. His unpredictable approach raises questions about the stability of U.S.-Canada relations, especially as Ottawa weighs its options regarding the Gripen.
Navigating a Complex Defence Landscape
The F-35 program has been fraught with complexities and escalating costs, characterised by its dependence on constant software updates and spare parts from the U.S. In this context, relying solely on American technology could undermine Canada’s military autonomy. As Carney pointed out in his recent address at the Davos forum, the international order is evolving, necessitating a reevaluation of alliances and procurement strategies.
Investing in the Gripen could pave the way for a more independent Canadian defence sector, fostering a domestic aerospace research and development ecosystem. This move could also place Canada firmly on the global defence procurement map, enhancing its capabilities and influence on the world stage.
The Decision Ahead
Ultimately, the decision lies with Prime Minister Carney and his cabinet. The potential benefits of pursuing a mixed fleet of aircraft, including the Gripen, appear to align with Carney’s vision of a more self-reliant Canada. However, the spectre of Trump’s retaliation looms large, complicating the calculus for Ottawa. The risks of alienating the U.S. may be significant, but the opportunity to bolster Canada’s military sovereignty and stimulate the domestic aerospace industry could outweigh immediate concerns.
Why it Matters
This potential shift towards Saab’s Gripen jets represents not only a strategic military decision but also a pivotal moment for Canada’s defence industry. As the nation grapples with the implications of its military procurement choices, the outcome could redefine its engagement with global powers and establish a new path for technological independence. In an era marked by shifting alliances and economic uncertainty, the importance of fostering a resilient domestic defence sector cannot be overstated.
