As Costa Rica prepares to head to the polls on Sunday, the atmosphere is charged with anxiety over escalating crime and the potential for an authoritarian shift in a nation once heralded as a bastion of democracy. With the current president’s controversial ally, Laura Fernández, leading the race with a significant 40% of the vote, the stakes have never been higher.
Rising Insecurity Casts Shadow Over Elections
The upcoming election is set against a backdrop of increasing violence, with criminal gangs vying for control over lucrative cocaine smuggling routes to both Europe and the United States. This surge in crime has turned the focus of the campaign squarely onto security, overshadowing the country’s renowned reputation for wildlife tourism and peaceful living.
Voters will decide not only on a new president but also on 57 congressional representatives to shape the political landscape for the next four years. The current president, Rodrigo Chaves—a polarising figure who has disrupted the Costa Rican political order—is unable to run again due to constitutional restrictions on consecutive terms.
Chaves, who assumed office amid controversy over allegations of sexual harassment during his tenure at the World Bank, has infused the political discourse with his brash style, often clashing with established norms and institutions. His administration has attempted to grapple with the rising tide of violence, but critics argue that his approach may be paving the way for more authoritarian governance.
Laura Fernández: A Hardline Approach
Laura Fernández, a former minister and Chaves’s chosen successor, is capitalising on public fears. With her hardline stance on security, she is positioned as a candidate of change, promising to restore order. The latest polls suggest she could secure a first-round victory, but the opposition remains fragmented, with no single challenger mustering more than 10% support.
Despite her apparent lead, the number of undecided voters remains alarmingly high—approximately one-third of the electorate. Political analyst James Bosworth warns that the choices made by these undecided voters could sway the election’s outcome dramatically. Fernández could either secure a robust majority or find herself struggling to govern effectively if the opposition consolidates their votes.
The Threat of Authoritarianism
Critics of Fernández’s campaign warn of a potential slide into authoritarianism, particularly given her proposals for a state of emergency in violence-stricken areas. Eugenia Aguirre, a researcher at the University of Costa Rica’s Observatory of National Politics, describes such measures as “an authoritarian move,” reflecting broader concerns about the implications of Chaves’s political legacy.
Chaves himself has hinted at adopting the hardline security policies of El Salvador’s President Nayib Bukele, even inviting him to inaugurate a new prison inspired by Bukele’s notorious Terrorism Confinement Centre. The potential for Fernández to secure either a simple or supermajority in Congress raises alarms about significant structural changes to Costa Rican governance. Aguirre notes that a decisive win for Fernández could empower her to instigate constitutional amendments that further entrench executive power.
The Future of Costa Rican Democracy
Luis Antonio Sobrado, a former president of the supreme electoral tribunal, asserts that this election will be a crucial juncture for Costa Rica—either correcting its populist trajectory or sinking deeper into authoritarianism. However, some analysts remain cautiously optimistic, suggesting that the resilience of Costa Rican institutions may prevail. “Costa Rica will still have fair elections four years from now,” Bosworth states, maintaining that the country’s democratic fabric will endure despite the current turmoil.
Why it Matters
The significance of this election extends beyond mere political outcomes; it may well determine the future of democracy in Costa Rica. As the nation grapples with rising security concerns and the spectre of authoritarianism, the choices made by voters will shape not only their immediate future but also the principles of governance that have defined Costa Rica for generations. The world watches closely as this Central American nation stands at a crossroads, balancing between the promise of change and the risks of regression.