When Elections Alberta finally finishes counting the millions of ballots expected from next month’s independence referendum, much of the country will likely be fast asleep.
The results from the central question, asking voters whether Alberta should remain in Canada or begin laying the legal groundwork for a second, binding secession vote, are expected between 1 a.m. and 4 a.m. local time on October 20. Results from nine other referendum questions, covering issues ranging from immigration to constitutional reform, likely won’t be publicly reported until the following morning, on October 21.
An Election Like No Other
Elections Alberta on Thursday provided its most detailed briefing yet on how it expects the ten-question referendum to unfold. It marks the first time a provincial vote has been dedicated solely to referendum questions.
The scale of the operation has placed enormous strain on the electoral agency, which has scrambled to keep pace with a flurry of legislative changes pushed through by Premier Danielle Smith’s government in recent years. Many of those reforms have been aimed at expanding what the premier calls “direct democracy.”
Dallas Stoesz, Elections Alberta’s deputy chief electoral officer, told reporters that the logistical challenge is unlike anything the province, or indeed the country, has attempted before.
“Not only has Alberta never done anything like this — nowhere in Canada has done anything like this before,” she said at a news conference. “Yes, we’ve had referendums. Yes, there’s been millions of ballots. But not concentrated like this, or across a ten-question event.”
Secession at the Centre, With More Questions on the Ballot
While Smith’s signature independence question has dominated headlines for months, she is also asking voters to weigh in on nine additional proposals. Among them: a plan to dramatically restrict public services available to certain immigrants, and a push to open formal discussions with other provinces about lobbying Ottawa for constitutional amendments.
Elections Alberta confirmed it will first count and report the secession question, then move on to the remaining nine. Ballots will be reported live from each of Alberta’s 87 electoral districts after polls close at 8 p.m. on October 19, according to Jennifer Maskoske, the agency’s director of election operations.
Smaller, less populous ridings are expected to report earlier in the night, though Maskoske cautioned that voter turnout will be the biggest factor in determining how long the count takes.
A Return to Hand-Counting
The referendum will be Alberta’s first provincewide vote to be hand-counted since Smith’s government banned the use of electronic tabulators, a decision the premier justified by arguing the machines have failed to deliver faster results or bolster public confidence in election outcomes.
The sheer workload facing Elections Alberta has fuelled concerns about the agency’s capacity to run a smooth referendum. Roughly 35,000 people have applied to work the vote — still well short of its target of 60,000 hires. According to a Globe and Mail report last month, the agency has been recruiting experienced election workers from other provinces to help fill the gap.
Under provincial law, Elections Alberta has 48 hours to count all ballots, though the legislation does not specify any consequence for missing that deadline. If turnout matches Alberta’s 2023 election, when approximately 1.7 million people cast ballots representing roughly 60 per cent of eligible voters, the agency will need to count at least 17 million ballots within that window.
Confusion Over Special Ballots
This week, the first special ballots, otherwise known as mail-in ballots, were sent to some of the approximately 290,000 Alberta residents who requested them. Until last year, those ballots required voters to sign a declaration confirming they could not vote in person. Smith’s government scrapped that requirement, allowing any voter to request a special ballot instead of going to the polls.
Yet voters this week reported receiving ballot packages that still include a declaration section requiring them to sign a statement swearing they are unable to vote in person, with the declaration underlined and accompanied by a warning of fines up to $50,000 or possible prison time.
Stoesz said electors are free to cross out that particular declaration without facing penalties, and confirmed the section will be removed from all ballot packages that have not yet been mailed.
“If electors are uncomfortable, if electors want, they can strike that out on their declaration,” she said. “[If] they complete the rest of the declaration, sign it, send it back, we will accept those.”
The Price Tag
Elections Alberta has not publicly disclosed how much the referendum will cost. A former Alberta chief electoral officer recently estimated the price tag at roughly $120 million, more than triple the $37 million spent on the 2023 provincial election.
Stoesz said Elections Alberta will submit its final budget to a government committee after the referendum concludes.
Why it Matters
This referendum represents a high-stakes stress test not just for Elections Alberta, but for the very machinery of Canadian democracy. With results expected in the early hours of the morning, an unprecedented hand-count spanning ten questions, and persistent staffing shortages, the agency is being asked to deliver a logistical feat that has no precedent in the country. The financial cost alone — potentially more than three times that of a general election — raises questions about the fiscal sustainability of Smith’s broader direct-democracy agenda. And with Albertans being asked to weigh in on matters as consequential as secession, immigration policy, and constitutional reform, the world will be watching to see whether the province can pull off a vote that may well shape its future within Canada.
