**
The Canadian aerospace industry is gripped by uncertainty following recent threats from former U.S. President Donald Trump, who has vowed to decertify Canadian-made aircraft unless specific actions are taken by Canada. As Bombardier Inc. relies heavily on the U.S. market, generating approximately $5 billion from American customers in 2023 alone, the implications of these developments could be significant for the company and the industry at large.
FAA’s Position Remains Ambiguous
On Monday, Bryan Bedford, the head of the U.S. Federal Aviation Administration (FAA), refrained from clarifying the agency’s stance on possibly revoking safety certifications for aircraft manufactured in Canada. This includes Bombardier’s Global and Challenger jets, as well as the Airbus A220 and De Havilland’s water-bombers. Bedford indicated concerns about whether other countries are dedicating adequate resources to the certification process for U.S. products, hinting that this disparity could disadvantage American manufacturers.
“Our concern is whether or not sufficient resources are being applied to U.S. products equal to the resources that we’re applying to certify foreign products,” Bedford stated during the Changi Aviation Summit in Singapore. His comments reflect the ongoing tensions in the aviation sector as the U.S. seeks a more level playing field.
Trump’s Threats Spark Industry Alarm
Trump’s recent comments ignited a wave of apprehension within both the Canadian and U.S. aerospace sectors. The former President took to social media, asserting that the U.S. would decertify Bombardier’s Global Express jets and other aircraft produced in Canada until Ottawa approves the Gulfstream business jets manufactured in Savannah, Georgia. He accused Canada of “wrongfully and illegally” delaying the certification of four Gulfstream models and threatened a staggering 50% tax on Canadian aircraft entering the U.S. market.
Despite the alarmist tone, a White House official later clarified that the decertification would not affect aircraft already in operation, but would pertain solely to newly manufactured models. Nevertheless, the situation has left industry leaders on edge, with Bombardier, Airbus, and De Havilland opting not to comment publicly. Meanwhile, Canadian officials have maintained their position, asserting that the certification process for Gulfstream jets is ongoing.
The Certification Conundrum
Industry Minister Mélanie Joly has stated that the certification for Gulfstream jets is underway, emphasising that U.S. demands for approvals were only recently communicated. While U.S. and European regulators have granted temporary exemptions for Gulfstream’s G700 and G800 models until the end of 2026, Transport Canada has not followed suit.
Ehsan Monfared, a lawyer specialising in aviation law, remarked that while it is reasonable for the FAA to encourage Transport Canada to allocate sufficient resources to validation, Canada should not be expected to expedite approvals simply because the U.S. has done so. “It has never been the practice to just rubber stamp another government’s approval,” Monfared asserted, drawing parallels to the independent validation processes for vaccine approvals.
Impacts on Bombardier and the Industry
The ongoing trade tensions have raised questions about Bombardier’s future. The Montreal-based manufacturer has secured a significant portion of its revenue from the U.S. market, underscoring its vulnerability to shifting policies. Currently, Bombardier’s aircraft benefit from tariff exemptions under the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA), but this could change as the U.S. Department of Commerce completes its Section 232 investigation into commercial aircraft imports.
In November, Bombardier CEO Éric Martel acknowledged the company’s limited contingency plans should tariffs be imposed, suggesting that they had not extensively prepared for such an eventuality, as they perceived the risk to be low.
Why it Matters
The unfolding situation in the aerospace sector is emblematic of the broader trade tensions between the U.S. and Canada. As Bombardier grapples with potential trade barriers, the implications for the Canadian economy and its aerospace industry could be profound. With a significant reliance on U.S. customers, any adverse decisions could threaten jobs and revenue streams in Canada, highlighting the delicate balance of international trade relations and the critical need for dialogue to resolve these issues amicably.