A recent study highlights alarming projections that cuts in international aid could lead to over 22 million avoidable deaths by 2030, significantly impacting vulnerable populations, particularly children under five. This analysis, published in *The Lancet Global Health*, underscores the potential reversal of hard-won progress in reducing child mortality rates, attributing these risks to drastic budget reductions by key donor nations, including the United States and the United Kingdom.
The Dire Consequences of Aid Reductions
The research team examined the correlation between aid flows and mortality rates from 2002 to 2021, establishing a clear link between foreign aid and improved health outcomes. The study presents three potential scenarios for future aid: “business-as-usual,” a “mild defunding” scenario reflecting recent cuts, and a “severe defunding” scenario projecting a reduction of aid to approximately half of 2025 levels by the decade’s end.
Under the severe defunding scenario, the study predicts an additional 22.6 million deaths by 2030, including 5.4 million children under the age of five. The mild defunding scenario forecasts 9.4 million excess deaths, with 2.5 million of those being young children. These projections are particularly concerning given the recent trends in donor country budgets.
Current Trends in Foreign Aid
Countries such as the US and the UK have announced substantial reductions in foreign aid. In 2025, the US slashed its aid budget by more than 50%, dropping from $68 billion to $32 billion. Concurrently, the UK plans to decrease its spending from 0.5% to 0.3% of GDP by 2028, amounting to a reduction of approximately £6 billion to accommodate rising military expenditures.
Such cuts come after two decades of remarkable progress in reducing child mortality, specifically from infectious diseases like HIV/AIDS and malaria, which have seen a 39% decline in deaths among children under five due to foreign aid initiatives. The authors of the study stress that these reductions threaten to undo years of progress in global health.
Experts Urge Action
Lead researcher Professor Davide Rasella from the Barcelona Institute for Global Health (ISGlobal) has voiced concerns that the current trajectory of funding cuts aligns with policies proposed by right-wing political factions in various countries. He emphasised that the potential for “mild defunding” is increasingly likely based on existing trends, while the more severe cuts appear to reflect a concerning political shift.
Rasella recounted visits to rural healthcare facilities in Mozambique, where healthcare providers reported severe shortages of essential medicines. “They had no antibiotics left for children, as all the supplies were managed by USAID,” he stated. The dismantling of healthcare units in Afghanistan further exemplifies the tangible impact of these funding reductions.
Eric Pelofsky, vice-president of the Rockefeller Foundation, which supported the study, warned that the funding gaps created by these cuts are insurmountable for non-governmental organisations. He urged political leaders to recognise the real-world implications of their funding decisions, which can destabilise global health systems.
The Immediate Impact of Aid Cuts
The repercussions of reduced aid budgets are being felt across various health sectors. Gideon Rabinowitz, director of policy and advocacy at Bond, a UK-based network of NGOs, noted that the closure of programmes addressing HIV, reproductive health, and female genital mutilation already indicates the detrimental effects of UK aid cuts. He highlighted the long-term benefits of official development assistance (ODA), asserting that it is one of the most cost-effective investments governments can make, contributing significantly to global safety and health.
Why it Matters
The findings of this study serve as a stark reminder of the fragility of global health systems and the profound impact that funding decisions can have on millions of lives. As governments grapple with budgetary constraints and shifting political priorities, the potential for a resurgence in preventable diseases looms large. The evidence presented calls not only for a reconsideration of cuts but also for a renewed commitment to sustaining and enhancing aid efforts to safeguard the health and future of vulnerable populations worldwide.