Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk has warned that intelligence assessments indicate Russia is considering hybrid strikes involving drones and missiles against countries supporting Ukraine, including Poland.
The warning centres on the possibility of incidents along Nato’s eastern flank that Moscow could portray as accidents, creating uncertainty over whether the alliance should respond collectively.
Intelligence described as “very consistent and convincing”
Tusk said the latest intelligence pointed to “plans for hybrid strikes using drones and missiles against countries supporting Ukraine, including Poland”.
Describing the assessments as “very consistent and convincing”, he suggested that Russia could seek to exploit the ambiguity of limited attacks to avoid triggering a unified Nato response.
The concern is not that Moscow has openly declared an intention to attack a member state, but that it may test the alliance through incidents that remain below the threshold of a formal act of war.
A strategy built on ambiguity
According to Tusk, Russia is expected to present any such event as unintended, hoping to “paralyse or at least weaken Nato’s resolve to invoke the relevant provisions” of its founding treaty.
“There is a real risk that drones or other types of projectiles could be launched into the territory of one or more Nato countries on the eastern flank, and could even cause damage, and the official narrative will be that this is an accident and that there is no reason for anyone to consider any response from Nato,” he said.
That scenario would place Nato governments in a difficult position. Article 5, the alliance’s collective defence clause, treats an armed attack against one member as an attack against all, but the political and military response is determined by each member state.
Russia’s apparent objective, Tusk argued, would be to create doubt over whether the alliance could respond decisively to an incident that was damaging but carefully framed as accidental.
Testing Article 5 without declaring war
Tusk said the broader aim would be to undermine confidence in Nato’s unity and to persuade members that Article 5 is “more theoretical than practical”.
He pointed specifically to the vulnerability of smaller eastern members, warning that Moscow could seek to exploit the assumption that other allies would be reluctant to risk escalation on behalf of Latvia or Lithuania.
“The aim … will be to weaken Nato’s integrity in general and, above all, to convince … member states that Article 5 is more theoretical than practical – that is, the assumption that no one will want to die for Latvia or Lithuania, given that we are dealing with incidents rather than a declaration of war,” Tusk said.
His remarks reflect a wider European anxiety about Russia’s use of pressure below the level of conventional warfare, including cyberattacks, sabotage, disinformation and border incidents.
Repeated incidents and alliance cohesion
Tusk also warned that Russia could rely on “recurrent” incidents to demonstrate what he called “an increasingly stark illustration of Nato’s helplessness” in responding as one.
The danger, from his perspective, is cumulative: a single incident might be contained or dismissed, but a sequence of events could gradually erode public confidence and divide governments over the appropriate response.
For Poland and other frontline states, the issue is therefore not only military defence but political resolve. The alliance’s credibility depends as much on the willingness of its members to act together as on the strength of their armed forces.
Why it Matters
Tusk’s warning highlights a central dilemma facing Europe as the war in Ukraine continues: how to deter aggression without allowing Moscow to manipulate uncertainty and fracture the alliance from within. If Russia were to test Nato through drones, missiles or other hybrid means, the response would reveal whether Article 5 remains a practical guarantee of collective security or a principle vulnerable to hesitation, ambiguity and political division.
