Europe is not keeping pace with the rapid evolution of drone and missile warfare unfolding in Ukraine, Latvia’s president has warned, leaving many NATO members potentially unable to withstand even a limited Russian attack.
Speaking in Washington DC, Edgars Rinkēvičs said plans for an aerial conflict could be overtaken by technological change before the middle of next year. He cautioned that if Moscow deployed a small number of missiles, numerous countries would struggle to respond effectively.
Technology is outrunning European defence
“What we see is that air defence, drone defence, anti-ballistic defence has serious problems,” Rinkēvičs said. “And let’s be frank. Ukraine has it. The whole of Europe and Nato has it.”
His assessment is stark: Ukraine has accumulated experience and capability at a pace Europe has failed to match. The Baltic leader said current preparations could become obsolete as drones become cheaper, more numerous and more sophisticated, while missile-defence systems struggle to keep up.
“Because if Russia decides to use a couple of missiles in that territory, I think that would be a serious challenge today for many countries to cope with that,” he added.
The central problem is not simply the number of missiles Russia might release, but the difficulty of detecting, tracking and intercepting them across a crowded battlespace. Drones can be cheap relative to the sophisticated systems required to defeat them, creating an unequal exchange that favours the attacker. Europe’s industrial capacity and procurement systems, built for slower cycles of change, may prove particularly vulnerable.
The gap is becoming strategic. NATO’s collective-defence promise will carry little weight if member states cannot defend their own airspace.
Patriot shortages expose an industrial bottleneck
Ukraine and its European partners are also confronting delays in supplies of Patriot missiles and other crucial air-defence interceptors. An analysis of a Congressional Budget Office assessment indicates that the United States has used nearly two-thirds of its stock of critical interceptors in the war in Iran. Replenishing those stocks could take at least five years.
Washington has explored increasing Patriot production in Ukraine and Europe, but no agreement has yet been reached. Licensing requirements and other technical obstacles have slowed discussions about transferring parts of the manufacturing process.
“It’s up to the United States government, it’s up to the company,” Rinkēvičs said, acknowledging that talks continue. “We have some capacities in Europe, but let’s face it: Patriots are still one of the best, if not the best, to tackle this.”
The comments underline a difficult reality for European governments. They may possess some manufacturing capability, but that does not automatically translate into immediate operational strength. New facilities, trained personnel, supply chains and certification processes all require time.
Russia tests NATO through ambiguous attacks
NATO allies are increasingly warning that Russia could escalate beyond Ukraine through missile or drone strikes against countries supporting Kyiv. At next week’s United Nations general assembly in New York City, Donald Trump is expected to meet senior European leaders as those concerns gather force.
Poland’s prime minister, Donald Tusk, warned on Thursday that Moscow might strike NATO territory in the coming months to test the alliance’s commitment to Article 5. He said Russia would seek to “weaken Nato’s integrity” and demonstrate that “article 5 is more theoretical than practical”, while presenting individual incidents as accidents.
When asked whether Russia could attack countries assisting Ukraine, Trump replied: “I think they already have attacked Ukrainian allies. They’ve been attacking Ukrainian allies for approximately five years.” He then backed Polish president Karol Nawrocki, a candidate supported by the conservative Law and Justice party. “You have a great president, he was a big Trump fan … he’s doing a fantastic job, and he’s got it under control.”
The Baltic states have moderated their public warnings. They have found no clear sign that Moscow intends to mount a conventional invasion to recover territory once controlled by the Soviet Union. Rinkēvičs nevertheless expects Russia to increase mobilisation after its local elections and use the coming winter to advance in Ukraine while trying to discourage European support.
He said Moscow could also use sabotage, cyber operations and drone or missile incidents to probe Western resolve. “I would rule out a conventional military incursion but we should be very vigilant when it comes to all kinds of other possibilities,” he said.