Friedrich Merz will learn on Sunday whether two German state elections can still destabilise a chancellorship that has already entered its most precarious phase. Voters in Berlin and Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania are choosing their regional parliaments as the Alternative für Deutschland (AfD), boosted by its striking recent result in Saxony-Anhalt, seeks to preserve what looks like an extraordinary wave of support.
About 2.5 million people are entitled to vote in Berlin, while nearly 1.3 million can cast ballots in Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania. Polling stations open at 8am and close at 6pm local time, with exit polls placing the chancellor and his allies in a tense wait for news.
The outcome could determine whether Merz, in power for only 16 months, retains the confidence of his party. A particularly poor result may prompt demands for his replacement, although a snap federal election remains unlikely and has not been ruled out.
Merz’s 16 months under the microscope
Merz has rejected calls to resign and intends to remain focused on a package of economic and social welfare reforms that he argues are essential to Germany’s recovery. His position, however, has been weakened by sluggish growth, rising living costs and a dramatic shift in voter sentiment towards the AfD.
“We as a government were elected for four years, I was elected for four years,” he told an industry group. “And I want to use these four years to lead the country out of this difficult period.”
Yet his personal approval rating has fallen to 10%. His promise to restore Europe’s largest economy to growth has proved elusive, while the AfD remains Germany’s largest opposition party and leads opinion polling. Those failures have damaged the credibility of a chancellor who had expected his first years in office to be defined by decisive reform rather than electoral damage.
Merz has also cancelled his planned appearance at the UN general assembly in New York. A government official said his presence was required in Berlin following the elections.
Berlin’s election becomes a housing referendum
In Berlin, the incumbent CDU is contesting first place with the far-left Die Linke, whose campaign has called for the expropriation of corporate landlords to ease the city’s housing crisis. The issue carries particular weight: approximately 85% of Berlin households rent their homes, and advertised rents have almost doubled since 2014, when the capital was still described by then-mayor Klaus Wowereit as “poor but sexy”.
The AfD, despite its reputation as a rural and eastern German stronghold, is also polling strongly for third or fourth place in the cosmopolitan capital. That result would underscore how far its appeal has spread beyond its traditional electoral base.
The CDU’s campaign has been further complicated by the collapse of former Berlin mayor Kai Wegner’s plan to seek re-election in July. Wegner had become entangled in conflicting explanations concerning his decision to play tennis while large parts of the city were left without power during an arson-triggered blackout the previous winter.
Stefan Evers, Berlin’s chief finance official, replaced him as the CDU candidate but has so far failed to improve the party’s standing in the polls. For Merz, the contest is therefore not merely about losing votes to the AfD. It is also about whether his party can recover credibility among voters alienated by local mismanagement and the cost-of-living squeeze.
Mecklenburg poses the sharper threat
The situation appears even more hazardous in Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania, where the AfD and Social Democrats are locked in a close contest. The CDU risks recording its first single-digit result in 75 years. If it falls below the 5% threshold required for parliamentary representation, the consequence would be unprecedented for the party in the postwar period.
The severity of the challenge became clear in Saxony-Anhalt two weeks ago, when the anti-immigration, pro-Kremlin AfD came just short of an absolute majority. Such a result would have enabled it to govern the former communist state alone. The party is now seeking defectors from other parties in a bid to become the first far-right force to run a German state since the Nazi period.
Polling nevertheless suggests that the AfD will fall well short of that objective in both Sunday’s elections. Momentum alone has not proved enough to translate dissatisfaction into the sweeping victories it targeted in Saxony-Anhalt.
Even so, the earlier result has left Merz with his back to the wall and intensified speculation that another Christian Democrat could replace him as chancellor before the next federal election, scheduled for 2029. A snap election remains the less likely option, but the possibility cannot be dismissed if the CDU suffers another historic defeat.
Holger Schmieding, chief economist at Berenberg bank, still expects Merz to complete his term. Writing in a research note, he offered a sharper assessment of the growing unease within the party: “But the risk that the CDU may revolt against him and replace the unpopular chancellor seems to have risen from 20% 10 days ago to roughly 35% now.”
Some economic indicators have improved since Merz took office, but soaring prices and the decline of core industrial sectors, including automobile manufacturing under pressure from Chinese competition, have taken a heavy toll. Schmieding also pointed to a global rise in petrol prices as an additional burden on already frustrated voters.
The AfD’s Saxony-Anhalt victory was built partly by mobilising people who had previously stayed away from elections. Its opponents now hope that the prospect of a far-right government in another state will encourage voters to support mainstream democratic parties instead. Tens of thousands of Germans joined anti-AfD demonstrations following the Saxony-Anhalt result, but turnout alone may not be enough if the opposition continues to resonate with economic anxiety, fears about crime and resistance to Merz’s firm support for Ukraine.</p
