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The imminent expiration of the New Start treaty between the United States and Russia threatens to dismantle over five decades of nuclear arms control, leaving both nations without mutual restrictions on their vast arsenals. This pivotal moment, set for Thursday, could exacerbate global instability and undermine the post-World War II international order, a situation already strained by geopolitical tensions.
A Critical Juncture in Arms Control
The New Start treaty, which was signed in 2010 by then-President Barack Obama and Russian President Dmitry Medvedev, capped the number of deployed strategic warheads for both countries at 1,550 and limited the total number of delivery systems to 800. Its expiration signals the end of formal constraints on the world’s two most significant nuclear powers at a time when the global security landscape is increasingly precarious.
Alexandra Bell, president of the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, emphasised the dire implications of this development. “Nuclear risks are trending in the wrong direction,” she stated. “As we approach the expiration, we witness a failure of leadership to manage these risks, jeopardising decades of efforts to maintain nuclear stability.”
The Deterioration of Trust
Medvedev, now a prominent figure in Russian politics, voiced concerns that the lapse of the treaty signifies a significant erosion of trust between the US and Russia. “When there is an agreement, it means there is trust,” he remarked. “Without it, we find ourselves in a situation where trust has been exhausted.”
Despite calls from arms control advocates for a last-minute intervention to salvage the treaty, substantive negotiations appear to have stalled. In September, Russian President Vladimir Putin suggested a one-year extension, a proposal that was initially welcomed by Donald Trump. However, it has since been met with silence, with Trump asserting an intention to pursue a “better agreement” only after New Start’s expiration.
The Broader Implications for Global Security
The potential fallout from the treaty’s termination extends beyond the US and Russia. Analysts warn that the end of New Start could ignite a fresh arms race, particularly as China continues to expand its relatively smaller nuclear arsenal, which is estimated to be around 600 warheads. Daryl Kimball, head of the Arms Control Association, cautioned that the United States may feel compelled to increase its nuclear capabilities in response to China’s strategic ambitions, further destabilising an already fraught security environment.
The implications for the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons (NPT) are equally alarming. The NPT, which calls for nuclear states to make good faith efforts towards disarmament, could be significantly undermined by the collapse of New Start. “This would represent a direct violation of the United States’ legal obligations under the NPT,” Kimball noted. “It would shake the foundations of the rules that underpin international nuclear governance.”
A New Era of Uncertainty
As the countdown to the treaty’s expiration continues, the international community finds itself at a crossroads. The historical rationale for nuclear deterrence, which posited that the existence of nuclear weapons created a stabilising effect, is increasingly being questioned. Analysts highlight that the dynamics of global security are shifting, with nuclear arsenals losing their deterrent efficacy. Alex Kolbin, a nuclear weapons analyst, stated that “nuclear weapons are no longer functioning as a decisive factor in global security.”
The world now stands on the precipice of a potentially volatile new chapter in nuclear arms dynamics, one where the absence of established agreements could lead to unchecked proliferation and escalated tensions.
Why it Matters
The expiration of the New Start treaty not only represents a significant setback for global arms control but also risks igniting a new nuclear arms race that could have catastrophic consequences. As nations grapple with the complexities of modern geopolitical rivalries, the absence of mutual agreements may lead to a destabilised international environment, where the absence of trust and dialogue overshadows the collective efforts to prevent nuclear conflict. The stakes are high, and the future of global security hangs in the balance.
