The capital’s most iconic public transport feature is losing its momentum. London’s buses are slowing at an alarming rate, with more than four-fifths of routes recording reduced average speeds over the past decade. For the millions who depend on them — disproportionately the city’s most disadvantaged residents — the implications are stark: longer journeys, diminishing reliability, and a service edging towards what industry insiders call a “vicious circle of decline.”
The Numbers Tell a Damning Story
The statistics paint an unmistakable picture of deterioration. Across London’s sprawling bus network, the average speed in 2025-26 stood at just 9.18mph — the lowest recorded since comparable data began in 2013-14, representing a 4.8% decline over that period. On the 22, a route threading through some of the capital’s busiest streets towards Oxford Circus, buses averaged just under 6mph last year. That figure is 16% slower than the same route managed a decade ago, meaning a journey that once took 51 minutes now stretches to an hour or more.
The scale of the problem is staggering. Of the 700 routes serving the capital, 578 have seen their average speed reduced between 2015 and 2025. In the west, the 207 to White City now trundles along at 7.4mph — slower than the average beginner cyclist — while the 243 to Waterloo, one of the city’s busiest corridors, has slowed by 5%. That single route carried 9.8 million passengers in 2025, yet delivers them ever more slowly.
Timetables have long been stretched to accommodate London’s notorious congestion. Analysis by transport economist Alexander Jan reveals that scheduled journey times are now, on average, 30% longer than they were half a century ago. Yet even with that generous allowance, buses are increasingly failing to meet their own targets. On high-frequency routes — those running more than five buses per hour — passengers now wait 22% longer than scheduled, up from 18% in 2018.
A Vicious Circle Threatens the Network’s Future
When buses slow, passengers leave. Research cited by Transport for London suggests a 10% fall in speed produces a 6% drop in demand. The consequences are already visible. Annual ridership, which consistently exceeded two billion journeys between 2010 and 2019, fell to 1.8 billion in 2024 — the first decline since the post-pandemic recovery began. Passenger numbers have dropped by more than 300 million a year since 2013, even as London’s population has grown by nearly a million people.
The financial mathematics are equally troubling. Because drivers’ wages constitute the largest share of operating costs, slower buses demand more vehicles and more staff to deliver the same level of service. The Confederation of Passenger Transport estimates that making London’s buses just 10% faster would generate an additional £70m annually in fare revenue while cutting operating costs by £214m. Conversely, the current trajectory of decline is bleeding the network of resources at precisely the moment it needs them most.
The network itself has contracted. Between 2010 and 2019, TfL buses covered an average of 487 million kilometres annually. Over the past three years, that figure has fallen to approximately 460 million. Fewer miles, slower speeds, and falling passenger numbers form a feedback loop that industry figures fear will prove difficult to break.
Mayor Sadiq Khan, whose father was a bus driver, has been candid about the severity of the situation. “We’re really concerned about bus usage. One of the reasons, when you speak to commuters, is a lack of reliability. And why is it they lack reliability? Because of bus speed,” he has said. He also emphasises the disproportionate burden on the poor: “I’m fully aware that it’s poorer Londoners that rely on buses because they’re cheaper.”
A Global Phenomenon Beyond Britain’s Shores
London is far from the only city confronting this challenge. A 2026 report from the Transport Strategy Centre at Imperial College London identified a “persistent decline in bus speeds” across 15 networks spanning Europe, Asia, and North America over the past decade. London’s slowdown, while significant, is actually modest compared with cities including Paris, Istanbul, Kuala Lumpur, and Singapore, where bus travel is more than 10% slower than pre-pandemic levels.
The underlying causes, however, share a common thread. Growing traffic volumes, shrinking road space allocated to buses, and infrastructure works have combined to squeeze public transport corridors worldwide. In Barcelona, the redevelopment of Plaça de les Glòries Catalanes pushed traffic onto surrounding roads at lower speed limits, with no priority for buses — journey times rose by more than a quarter. In New York, widening the protected cycle lane on Sixth Avenue reduced general traffic lanes from four to three, and morning peak bus speeds fell by 8% over the following year.
The Transport Strategy Centre’s conclusion is unequivocal: when buses are fast and reliable, passengers respond with increased use, strengthening the viability of the entire system. When speeds decline, ridership suffers, undermining sustainability goals. Making buses better, the report argues, is “a primary lever for achieving equitable, low-carbon, and resilient cities.”
Roadworks, Cycle Lanes and the Politics of Space
In London, the debate over what — or who — is to blame has become intensely political. Two factors dominate the conversation: the sheer volume of roadworks and the competing demands for finite road space.
More than 1,000 roadworks obstruct London’s streets on an average day, a post-pandemic surge in utility works compounded by road redesign projects and repairs to weather-damaged infrastructure. Seb Dance, London’s deputy mayor for transport, points to ageing infrastructure as the root cause. “We’ve got a problem in London where we’ve got old infrastructure, whether it’s sewage, water, electricity, gas,” he says.
Operators see the problem differently. Graham Vidler, chief executive of the Confederation of Passenger Transport, argues that unplanned works are the decisive factor: “The number of roadworks seems to be mushrooming.” He also contends that recent cycling infrastructure, however worthwhile, has come at the bus network’s expense: “If the politicians decide to give more space to one mode it follows that others will get less.”
The data supports the concern. London now has five times as much road space dedicated to cycleways as it did a decade ago — 450 kilometres compared with just 90. The conversion process itself has involved lengthy construction, relocated bus stops, and moved pavements. Pedestrianisation of Trafalgar Square, once a crucial bus interchange, has already been completed, and Oxford Street, another vital bus corridor, faces a similar transformation.
TfL’s Geoff Hobbs acknowledges the tension but frames it as a necessary evolution. “There are trade-offs to be done… London has become a more walkable city. There are more cycle lanes.” He also points to changing travel patterns: smaller school rolls, more home working, and the explosion of online shopping — which has flooded streets with delivery vans that both add to congestion and block bus routes.
Looking Ahead: Technology, Heat, and the Road to Recovery
Not all developments are negative. London’s Superloop orbital routes, rebranded and remapped under Khan’s tenure, have bucked the downward trend. “The Superloop has shown we can increase bus usage. If you provide a good product, people will use it,” the mayor insists. The next phase of TfL’s Fusion programme — linking thousands of traffic signals to prioritise bus flow — promises further technological intervention. A lane rental scheme, already pioneered on TfL roads, is being extended to boroughs to incentivise more coordinated and efficient roadworks.
Yet significant headwinds remain. Road speed limits across the capital are being reduced, with more 20mph zones and plans to cut the 50mph limit on major suburban roads to 40mph before 2030 — potentially affecting even the express Superloop services. The sweltering summer of 2026 has already forced TfL to advise drivers to rest during extreme heat, with contractual penalties suspended during such periods, likely becoming more frequent.
Claire Wright, TfL’s head of streets performance, remains cautiously optimistic, insisting the bus network remains “the most popular form of public transport in the capital, helping people get around affordably while also delivering public health and air quality benefits.” She points to the electric fleet programme, the Hopper fare enabling unlimited bus connections for the price of a single journey, and ongoing performance monitoring as evidence of institutional commitment.
Whether these measures will be sufficient to reverse a decade of decline remains the defining question for the capital’s transport future.
Why it Matters
The slowdown of London’s buses is not merely a matter of commuter inconvenience — it is a fundamental threat to the social fabric, economic vitality, and environmental ambitions of one of the world’s great cities. When the poorest residents, who rely most heavily on affordable bus travel, face journeys that are longer, less reliable, and increasingly frustrating, the consequences ripple outward into employment, health, and equality. The global evidence is clear: invest in fast, dependable buses and ridership follows; neglect them and the decline becomes self-reinforcing. London stands at a crossroads where the choices made in the coming years about road space, infrastructure investment, and transport priorities will determine whether the red double-decker remains a symbol of the city’s dynamism or becomes a fading relic of a system that once served millions but now struggles to hold their confidence.