Reform UK has fallen from first place to third in the latest YouGov MRP polling, marking a significant reversal for Nigel Farage’s party ahead of a potential general election.
The poll projects Labour would win 241 seats, with the Conservatives securing 130 and Reform UK just 123, pointing towards a hung parliament scenario.
In a dramatic shift from previous projections, YouGov’s latest large-scale seat model suggests the political landscape is moving away from Reform UK’s earlier dominance. Last year’s polling had indicated the party could become the largest in parliament, but current figures paint a very different picture.
Polling Reversal Hits Reform UK Hard
The MRP poll shows Reform UK sliding to 21% support, level with the Conservatives and two points behind Labour’s 23%. This represents the party’s weakest showing in YouGov polling for two years, coming amid ongoing internal turbulence.
Critically, the data indicates that high-profile Tory defectors Robert Jenrick and Suella Braverman would lose their seats to their former party under these projections. Patrick English, head of elections at YouGov, told The Times that there is “simply no viable path” for Reform and the Conservatives to form a governing coalition.
“Labour remains well short of a majority on their own, but they have multiple coalition options available from the left,” English explained. “The collective vote share and seat efficiency of left-leaning parties far exceeds what’s possible for parties on the right.”
Labour’s Path Forward Through Coalition
With Labour projected to win 241 seats but still 162 short of a majority, the party would need to rely on support from the Liberal Democrats and the Green Party to govern effectively.
The Green Party has moved into third place nationally with 14% support, up three points, while the Liberal Democrats remain on 12%, down one point from previous measurements.
This fragmentation on the left contrasts sharply with the right’s inability to consolidate support behind a unified front. The polling suggests voters are increasingly viewing Reform UK as a protest vote rather than a governing alternative.
Farage’s Personal Standing Declines
Nigel Farage’s personal approval ratings have hit a record low, with a net favourability rating of -45. This figure mirrors Sir Keir Starmer’s score just before his resignation as prime minister.
The decline from -31 this time last year indicates that British voters are now nearly three times as likely to view Farage negatively than positively. This personal downturn coincides with Reform UK’s broader electoral struggles.
The party’s worst polling result in two years follows months of organisational challenges and public relations difficulties that have eroded voter confidence in their alternative government proposition.
Historical Context: Dramatic Shift from 2025
The contrast with 2025 data is stark. That year’s projections showed Reform UK winning 311 seats, comfortably ahead of Labour’s 144 and the Conservatives’ mere 45 seats.
Such a dramatic reversal in less than two years highlights the volatility of the current political environment and Reform UK’s difficulty in maintaining momentum beyond protest politics.
The MRP methodology, which uses statistical modelling to predict seat outcomes from opinion poll data, suggests that while Reform UK maintains significant vote share, their support is not translating efficiently into parliamentary seats.
Why it Matters
This polling represents a fundamental realignment in British politics, where the protest vote that lifted Reform UK to prominence appears to be fragmenting. A hung parliament scenario would force Labour into coalition negotiations with smaller parties, potentially reshaping the policy agenda on issues from electoral reform to climate action. For Reform UK, the slide from first place to third demonstrates the difficulty of transitioning from outsider agitator to credible governing party, while the Conservatives face the challenge of rebuilding their base after losing ground to both Labour and Reform. The implications extend beyond party politics: a fragmented parliament may struggle to address urgent economic challenges, and voters could face continued political instability as parties jockey for influence in a minority government arrangement.
