A former Nato official has warned that Vladimir Putin believes he is winning the war in Ukraine and that Western leaders are underestimating the gravity of the situation.
John Lough, a former Moscow-based Nato representative now heading foreign policy at the New Eurasian Strategies Centre (NEST), has called on the UK government to strengthen its response to Russia’s escalating campaign. Speaking to The Independent, Lough argued that despite recent Ukrainian successes, including long-range missile strikes and defensive victories in the Donbas region, Moscow maintains the strategic initiative.
“Putin thinks he’s winning, and I think he’s right,” Lough stated bluntly. “Many in the West believed the tide had turned following Ukraine’s disruptive attacks on Russian infrastructure this summer, but that perception is misleading. The Kremlin retains dominance in aerial warfare and is exacting a heavy toll on Ukrainian forces.”
Underestimating Russian Resilience
Lough criticised what he described as a dangerous complacency among European leaders, suggesting they are merely waiting for a change in US leadership rather than formulating a coherent strategy. “Our leaders are hoping to weather the Trump era and that something better will emerge afterward. While not impossible, hoping for favourable outcomes is not sound policy,” he said.
He emphasised that although Ukrainian forces remain resolute, the physical and logistical foundation beneath them continues to erode. “The ground is being destroyed underneath their feet,” Lough warned. “This degradation is occurring faster than many realise, and the implications for Western security are profound.”
Russia Escalates Aerial Onslaught
Meanwhile, Russia has intensified its missile and drone attacks on Kyiv and surrounding areas. On Wednesday, officials confirmed that four people, including a child, were killed when Russian forces targeted critical infrastructure, including a power grid facility and a major internet exchange point. These strikes form part of a broader campaign aimed at destabilising civilian life ahead of the winter months, when energy infrastructure becomes especially vulnerable.
The renewed aggression underscores the urgency of Lough’s concerns. With temperatures dropping across Eastern Europe, Ukraine faces the dual challenge of defending its cities while ensuring basic services remain operational for millions of citizens.
Strategic Vulnerabilities and the Need for Action
Lough urged the UK to adopt a more assertive posture, both militarily and diplomatically. “We must invest more heavily in defence capabilities and identify where our own vulnerabilities lie,” he said. “Equally important is recognising Russian weaknesses and responding accordingly — not merely expelling a few diplomats, but considering cyber operations or other measures that signal resolve.”
His comments come amid already strained relations between London and Moscow. Earlier this month, the UK joined Germany and other European nations in condemning a brazen attack on a German airport, which officials attributed to Russian intelligence services. The Kremlin denied any involvement, but the incident reflects a broader pattern of hybrid warfare tactics designed to destabilise Western democracies.
Prime Minister Andy Burnham, who assumed office earlier this year, has reaffirmed Britain’s unwavering support for Ukraine. During his first official visit to Kyiv, he declared that the UK stands “100 per cent behind” the Ukrainian people. However, Lough cautioned that rhetoric alone will not suffice if the trajectory of the conflict continues unchecked.
“It’s not a comfortable conversation, discussing the possibility of Ukrainian defeat,” Lough admitted. “But we must acknowledge that without meaningful backing, that outcome becomes increasingly likely. The Ukrainians are sensing this lack of resolve, and it undermines their position on the battlefield.”
Diplomatic Tensions Intensify
Russia’s embassy in London recently accused Britain of exacerbating the conflict by supplying advanced weaponry to Kyiv. In response, Foreign Office spokespeople reiterated that such support is essential to upholding international law and sovereignty. As tensions simmer, the risk of miscalculation grows — particularly if either side misreads the other’s intentions or capabilities.
The situation demands careful calibration. While overt confrontation risks escalation, inaction could embolden further aggression. Lough’s intervention serves as a stark reminder that the stakes extend far beyond Ukraine’s borders.
Why it Matters
The warning from John Lough highlights a critical juncture in the war in Ukraine. If left unaddressed, the erosion of Ukrainian resistance could trigger a cascade of consequences across Europe — from refugee flows to energy disruptions to renewed territorial ambitions by authoritarian powers. For Britain and its Nato allies, the choice is clear: provide sustained material and moral support to Ukraine, or prepare for a future where the rules-based order is fundamentally challenged. The cost of indecision may prove far greater than the price of decisive action.