The cost of diesel at the pump has climbed to a fresh high of £2 per litre, a level not seen before, while former President Donald Trump has signalled he may impose a 90‑day ban on US diesel exports, a move that could tighten supplies and push prices higher across the globe.
The price surge
According to the RAC, the price of diesel has jumped 40.5 % since late February, when the United States began striking Iran, sending crude oil prices soaring from around $60 to well over $100 a barrel. The war in the Middle East has kept the Strait of Hormuz – through which roughly a fifth of the world’s oil passes – under threat, further fuelling the upward pressure on fuel costs. As a result, the price at the pump is now at a record level, placing strain on households and businesses that rely on diesel for transport and heating.
US export ban and global supply
In response to rising costs, G7 leaders have pledged to release up to 100 million barrels of diesel within four months, with French President Emmanuel Macron confirming that the allies will “take no measures to restrict the exchange of energy and petroleum products.” The United States, now the world’s largest diesel exporter thanks to reduced Russian supply following the Ukraine conflict, may curtail its shipments, prompting Europe to seek alternative sources and potentially driving up prices in the Netherlands and beyond.
“Diesel remains critical to the movement of goods. Heavy goods vehicles, distribution fleets, construction equipment and agricultural machinery all depend heavily upon it,” said Dr Jonathan Owens, operations and supply chain expert at the University of Salford. “Any significant disruption to international diesel supplies can therefore quickly translate into higher transport and operating costs, ultimately reaching the consumer.”
UK diesel stock and supply sources
Britain’s diesel landscape has shifted dramatically. Once near self‑sufficiency, the country now produces just 55 % of its own diesel, with imports making up the remainder; Russia, previously the main source, now accounts for zero of those imports, leaving the US and the Netherlands as primary suppliers. Around 31 % of the UK’s imported diesel originates from the United States, representing roughly 17 % of total supply in 2025, while the Netherlands contributes a further significant share.
Compared with other nations, the UK holds a relatively modest diesel stockpile – just 42 days of imports as of July 2026 – a sharp decline from over 140 days in 2008 and a peak of more than 100 days during the Covid‑19 lockdown when demand fell sharply.
Responses and recommendations
Transport minister Keir Mather reassured the public that the nation’s diesel supply remains “robust” and “resilient,” pointing to a diversified range of sources. Government crisis talks with Brussels have been held to consider releasing strategic fuel stocks, while experts advise businesses to focus on preparation rather than panic. “Overreacting or unnecessarily stockpiling fuel and goods risks adding further pressure to supply chains and could ultimately feed through to the public through higher prices or reduced availability,” Dr Owens warned.
He added that understanding both direct diesel consumption and indirect exposure through suppliers, logistics providers and contractors is essential for building supply‑chain resilience, with emergency stocks offering only a short‑term breathing space.
Why it Matters
The combination of soaring diesel prices and the prospect of a US export ban threatens to tighten an already fragile supply chain, inflating transport costs and pushing up the price of everyday goods. With the UK holding a relatively small diesel reserve and relying heavily on imported fuel, any disruption could quickly ripple through the economy, affecting everything from freight logistics to household energy bills, and underscoring the broader importance of energy security in a volatile geopolitical climate.
