London is poised to become the first electoral battleground over Labour’s push to reverse Brexit, with the likely Conservative candidate for mayor, Sir James Cleverly, declaring he is ready to contest any move to rejoin the European Union. The mayoral contest, scheduled for May 2028, is being framed as a dry run for a potential general election in 2029, should Andy Burnham honour his pledge not to call an early poll. Cleverly, a former foreign and home secretary, argues that restoring EU ties would jeopardise London’s thriving tech sector and undermine recent trade gains.
Cleverly’s Challenge to Labour’s Rejoin Push
Speaking to The Independent’s political editor David Maddox, Sir James insisted he welcomed making EU re‑entry a central issue in the race. He warned that Labour’s stance was contradictory, pointing to recent praise for the UK’s accession to the Comprehensive and Progressive Trans Pacific Partnership (CPTPP). “It’s only a few weeks ago that John Healey said the UK’s accession to the Comprehensive and Progressive Trans Pacific Partnership (CPTPP) – the kind of the Asia Pacific trading bloc – was going to be one of the most transformational economic events,” he said. “So, if we were to rejoin the EU, we would have to tear it up. Labour on one hand are saying ‘this is brilliant, this is transformational’… but then flirting with the idea of tearing up AI, for example.” He added, “Now you can love it or you hate it – but it is a fact of life, and it is really important.”
Cleverly also stressed that the UK’s distinct regulatory approach has made it the world’s third‑largest hub for artificial intelligence development. “The UK is the world’s third largest hub for AI development because we have a different regulatory regime to the EU,” he remarked. “So, if you’re happy to basically kill off London’s tech sector…” He suggested that stricter EU rules on AI and technology would harm the capital’s competitive edge.
Economic Arguments on Both Sides
Supporters of re‑joining the EU cite substantial trade losses attributed to Brexit. Logistics UK has highlighted a shortfall of more than £11bn a year in exports due to new barriers. Meanwhile, a report from the Institute for Public Policy for the Regions (IPPR) estimated that the UK is losing £6.5bn in exports alone to the EU because of a lack of mutual recognition on product testing.
In contrast, Sir James questioned Labour’s ability to secure a favourable re‑entry deal. He criticised the recent renegotiation of the Erasmus student travel arrangement, claiming it had become more expensive for fewer students, with most benefits accruing to EU participants. “This Labour government has shown an inability to negotiate a good deal, quite out of all recognition,” he said. “You look at the Erasmus student travel arrangement with the EU… they regarded that as a great success. The point I’m making is that Andy Burnham is desperately trying to be popular. He is willing to say whatever he thinks he needs to say to harvest some short-term popularity.”
Andy Burnham, for his part, has long advocated a rethink of the UK’s EU relationship. A year ago he said he wanted the country to rejoin the bloc, and at the Labour Party conference he warned that Brexit had caused “more harm than good,” describing it as “a decade of drift and division.” He later suggested that Labour’s next election manifesto could include an in‑out referendum or even a outright pledge to rejoin the EU, citing former Conservative chancellor George Osborne’s comments on a customs union as a possible model.
Sadiq Khan has also signalled his willingness to make Brexit a defining issue in the mayoral race. In a piece for The Guardian he wrote: “Perhaps most encouraging of all was the prime minister’s promise to rethink Britain’s relationship with the EU.” He went on to note that research commissioned by City Hall in 2024 showed London’s economy was £30bn smaller than it would have been without Brexit, with nearly 2m fewer jobs across the UK as a result of leaving. Earlier analysis indicated that the UK’s growth has lagged behind comparable European counterparts since 2016, warning that if the trend continues the economy could be £250bn smaller than similar EU states by 2030.
Why it Matters
The upcoming London mayoral election will serve as a litmus test for the broader national debate over Britain’s post‑Brexit future. A strong showing by either side could shape party strategies ahead of the 2029 general election, influencing whether the UK seeks a closer alignment with the EU or doubles down on its sovereign trade agenda. For London, the outcome may determine whether the capital retains its current regulatory advantages in high‑growth sectors like AI, or whether it pursues the potential economic benefits — and risks — of re‑entering the single market. The stakes extend beyond symbolism; they touch on jobs, investment, and the city’s global competitiveness in the years to come.
