A year after facing the prospect of a leadership challenge, Kemi Badenoch has turned the tide for the Conservative Party. Polling shows the Tories edging into the low 20s, occasionally surpassing Reform UK, while the leader’s personal approval has moved from deep negative territory to near neutral. Insiders say she has heeded advice to shift emphasis from culture‑war rhetoric to economic issues, a change reflected in the conference slogan “Stronger economy, stronger country”. Yet significant hurdles remain, with Labour’s Andy Burnham raising the bar and internal party tensions simmering beneath the surface.
Polling Gains and Approval Shifts
The Conservatives, once languishing at 14‑16% in the polls, have crept up to the low 20s. This modest revival has allowed them to lead Reform UK for the first time in nearly two years. Luke Tryl of the More in Common thinktank remarked that Badenoch is now “the only thing holding them up” and warned that ditching her would likely spell electoral oblivion.
Opinium data shows Badenoch’s approval rating climbing from ‑27 in May 2025 to ‑3 in its most recent survey. Among voters who backed the Conservatives in 2024, 64% approve of her performance, while only 8% disapprove. For those who voted Tory in 2019, the figures are 56% approval and 16% disapproval. YouGov’s latest snapshot reveals a split perception: four in ten respondents used at least one negative descriptor, yet three in ten offered positive terms, with “strong” and “intelligent” recurring most often.
Party Unity and Leadership Tests
Internal feedback suggests Badenoch has listened to colleagues urging her to concentrate on the economy rather than cultural flashpoints. This recalibration coincides with the party’s conference theme and has been bolstered by preparation sessions with senior figures such as David Cameron for her Prime Minister’s Questions appearances.
The defections of Robert Jenrick and Suella Braverman to Reform UK removed a source of right‑wing destabilisation, giving Badenoch a chance to demonstrate decisiveness. Meanwhile, lingering questions over Nigel Farage’s leadership and Reform UK’s finances have eroded that party’s poll advantage.
Nevertheless, not all is settled within the Tory ranks. Giles Kenningham, now heading Trafalgar Strategy, warned that Andy Burnham’s emergence as a formidable Labour communicator “raises the bar” and forces the Conservatives to focus sharply on the economy and upcoming budget. Some aides view the exclusion of certain high‑profile former MPs from selection races as a sign of lingering unease about Badenoch’s vulnerability to a tall‑poppy challenge.
External Rivals and Strategic Priorities
Labour’s resurgence under Andy Burnham has shifted the political landscape. Burnham’s strong conference performance and comfort in the spotlight contrast with the earlier perception of Sir Keir Starmer as a less electrifying figure. Kenningham noted that Burnham’s presence makes the upcoming budget a critical battleground, urging Badenoch to use the conference to set the agenda on economic welfare.
Despite the progress, senior Conservatives remain cautious. One strategist observed that Badenoch, like many politicians, dislikes seeing rivals overshadow her, while another acknowledged that her position is not immune to a future challenge. The prevailing view is that her greatest safeguard is the current lack of an obvious alternative contender within the party.
Why it Matters
Badenoch’s recent ascendancy illustrates how a modest pivot toward economic competence can stabilise a party drowning in low approval, yet it also underscores the fragility of such gains. If the Conservatives fail to sustain their polling lead over Reform UK and cannot counter Labour’s revitalised challenge under Burnham, the current resurgence may prove fleeting. The coming months will test whether the leader’s strengthened authority can translate into lasting electoral credibility or merely a temporary reprieve in a volatile political climate.
