Latest polling by More in Common shows the Conservative Party’s support has fallen one point to 21 %, while Nigel Farage’s Reform UK has risen three points to 24 %. Labour, led by Andy Burnham, remains ahead at 29 %, giving it a five‑point lead over Reform and an eight‑point advantage over the Tories. The figures come as Conservative leader Kemi Badenoch prepares to deliver her conference speech in Birmingham, where she is expected to announce a cut to the 40 % inheritance‑tax rate and warn that the country faces a “battle for the soul of the nation”.
Polling Shifts and the Rise of Reform UK
The More in Common survey, conducted largely before the Birmingham conference, indicates a modest but notable shift in voter sentiment. Labour’s share has increased two points to 29 %, marking its highest level since Burnham became prime minister. Reform UK’s gain of three points pushes it ahead of the Conservatives for the first time in this polling cycle. More in Common’s director, Luke Tryl, summed up the dynamics: “Labour has hit their highest since Burnham became PM, and are now more than ten points higher than their trough under Keir Starmer. Burnham is squeezing the left, as the Liberal Democrats also fall to their joint lowest this parliament.”
Despite the Conservatives’ recent promises of an “iron shield” for the UK, deregulation and a focus on tax and welfare support for better‑off households, the data suggest the party’s message has not yet resonated with a broad electorate. Badenoch will be hoping her conference address delivers a bounce in the coming days.
Badenoch’s Conference Speech: Tax Cuts and Warnings
In her address on Wednesday 07 October 2026, Badenoch is set to frame the economic debate as a stark choice between two visions of Britain. She will declare that the Labour government “wants to wind back the clock to failed ideas of the past” and claim that its policies “will make every single person in this country poorer”. Among her key announcements is a proposed reduction of the inheritance‑tax rate from 40 % to a lower level, a move she hopes will revitalise Tory electoral prospects.
She warned that without stronger growth under Conservative leadership, “something is going to break”. Accusing Labour of presiding over a “tax doom loop that is making us all poorer”, she argued that higher taxes and rising bills would leave households struggling to make ends meet. In a swipe at modern campaigning, she added: “Just because these ideas are delivered on TikTok doesn’t make them any less dangerous than they have always been.”
The speech also carries a direct challenge to Reform UK. Badenoch told reporters on Tuesday that, should the next election produce a hung parliament, she would “rather fight two general elections in quick succession than form a coalition with Nigel Farage’s Reform UK”. She later elaborated, saying: “I want Reform voters to come back to us. The people in Reform as politicians, the MPs, especially the ones who left our party, they are people who just cause problems.” She accused Reform of being “overshadowed by an exposé and scandals”, noting that its Welsh leader had stepped down after an arrest and his predecessor was imprisoned for taking bribes from Russia. “I don’t want to do a deal with those types of people,” she insisted.
Internal Debates: Labrador Mascot and Diversity Critique
Away from the podium, the conference has been marked by lighter moments and pointed internal critiques. Kevin Hollinrake’s two‑year‑old black Labrador, Zuzu, stole the spotlight when it accompanied him on stage, earning a standing ovation as he sipped a pint. The dog has become a unofficial mascot after Labour’s rural minister Jenny Riddell‑Carpenter described a Britain of “warm ale, black Labradors and country pubs” as a “far‑right nostalgic vision”, a comment that drew criticism from figures such as Jeremy Clarkson.
On a more substantive front, shadow justice secretary Nick Timothy used the platform to attack Labour’s approach to diversity, labelling it a “cancer” that the next Conservative government would “root out”. He claimed that Labour’s ideology had contributed to real‑world violence, citing the Southport killings by Axel Rudakubana and the Nottingham attacks by Valdo Calocane. Timothy argued: “So many parts of government are corrupted by radical identity politics and a deference to clan culture. We can no longer trust our institutions to work for us all, to uphold the principle that justice is blind, that we’re all equal before the law.” He went on to say: “The faces may change, but the policies live on because this is Labour’s ideology. An ideology with serious consequences in the real world: the Southport killer, Axel Rudakubana, Henry Nowak’s killer, Vikram Digwa, the Nottingham killer Valdo Calocane.” He concluded: “With each of their terrible crimes and many more like them, the failures of the state run deep. A desire to be representative and inclusive has warped and manipulated and led to failure, suffering and injustice.”
Coalition Stance and Future Prospects
Badenoch’s refusal to entertain any arrangement with Reform UK underscores a broader strategic calculation. By ruling out a coalition, she aims to preserve the Conservative brand while attempting to win back voters who have drifted to the far‑right. Her warning to wavering
