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The New START Treaty, the last significant nuclear arms control agreement between the United States and Russia, is poised to expire this week, marking the end of a crucial framework that has governed nuclear arsenals for over fifty years. As the world holds its breath, experts warn that the expiration could unleash an unrestrained arms race between the two nations, potentially involving China as well.
A Legacy of Control
The New START Treaty, signed in 2010 by then-President Barack Obama and Russian President Dmitry Medvedev, limited each country to no more than 1,550 deployed nuclear warheads and 700 delivery systems, which include missiles and bombers. Initially set to expire in 2021, the treaty was extended for an additional five years, allowing for on-site inspections to verify compliance. However, these inspections were suspended in 2020 due to the COVID-19 pandemic and have yet to resume.
Russian President Vladimir Putin has expressed a willingness to adhere to the treaty’s limits for an additional year, contingent on a reciprocal commitment from Washington. Yet, President Donald Trump has remained noncommittal regarding any extension, stating that he favours involving China in future arms control discussions—a move that Beijing has resisted.
The Implications of Expiration
With the New START Treaty on the cusp of expiration, the geopolitical landscape is fraught with uncertainty. Analysts, including Daryl Kimball, executive director of the Arms Control Association, have voiced concerns that the lack of constraints could incentivise both Russia and the US to increase their nuclear arsenals. “For the first time in about 35 years, we may see an increase in deployed nuclear weapons on both sides,” Kimball remarked, highlighting the potential for a dangerous three-way arms race involving China.
Kingston Reif from the RAND Corporation echoed these sentiments, stating that the absence of predictability might compel each nation to bolster their capabilities, creating a precarious atmosphere fraught with risk. This sentiment is underscored by Putin’s increasingly aggressive stance regarding Russia’s nuclear arsenal since the onset of the Ukraine conflict in 2022.
The Role of China
China’s growing nuclear capabilities complicate the situation further. Despite calls for China to participate in arms control negotiations, the nation has been resistant to any limitations on its smaller, yet expanding, nuclear arsenal. This reluctance raises the stakes, as an unconstrained arms race could lead to heightened tensions not only between the US and Russia but also with the rising power of China.
The implications of a renewed arms race are severe. A failure to maintain any form of nuclear arms control could lead to increased military spending and a deterioration of diplomatic relations. The result could be a return to Cold War-era dynamics, where miscalculations and misunderstandings had catastrophic consequences.
Historical Context and Future Prospects
The New START agreement follows a long line of arms reduction treaties, beginning with the Strategic Arms Limitation Talks (SALT) in 1972. Over the decades, various treaties have sought to limit the nuclear capabilities of the US and Russia, with varying degrees of success. The loss of the New START framework raises fears that the world is entering a more perilous phase of nuclear competition, reminiscent of the Cold War.
As tensions escalate, the prospect of resuming nuclear tests—first introduced by Trump—adds yet another layer of complexity. Such a move, if realised, would significantly undermine global nuclear non-proliferation efforts and could prompt Russia and other nations to follow suit.
Why it Matters
The expiration of the New START Treaty signifies a pivotal moment in global security, with the potential to ignite a new arms race that could destabilise international relations. The absence of nuclear constraints between the US and Russia not only raises the spectre of increased weapon stockpiling but also diminishes the prospects for diplomatic dialogue. As nations grapple with the implications of this development, the urgency for renewed arms control negotiations has never been more critical. The world stands at a crossroads, where the choices made today will shape the future of nuclear stability for generations to come.