A fragile handshake in Oslo
In the Norwegian capital, a brief embrace between Donald Trump’s envoy Steve Witkoff and Volodymyr Zelensky was intended to signal a thaw. The Ukrainian president posted a short video of the moment, captioning it with a message of gratitude for international backing. Yet beneath the courteous gesture lay a growing unease in Kyiv about the direction of American policy. The encounter, held ahead of further discussions, did little to dispel concerns that the United States is moving away from its previous commitment to support Ukraine’s war effort.
The meeting followed a series of contentious statements from the US side. In a recent interview, Trump described Zelensky as “not a good guy for us to deal with”, a stark contrast to the conciliatory tone of the Oslo summit. The same day, the president dismissed the Ukrainian leader’s remarks about a diesel arrangement with Russia, saying “Zelensky doesn’t know what he’s talking about”. These comments, delivered in rapid succession, have reinforced a perception in Kyiv that the US is increasingly critical of its president.
Escalating diplomatic friction
The discord stretches beyond rhetoric. Early this month, Ukrainian negotiators arrived in Miami for talks with Witkoff and Jared Kushner only to learn that Trump had just struck a deal with Vladimir Putin to open US markets to Russian diesel. The agreement, framed as a move to lower petrol prices ahead of mid‑term elections, was viewed in Kyiv as a punitive signal. Analysts questioned its potential impact on US fuel costs, but the symbolism was unmistakable: Washington appeared willing to court Moscow at Kyiv’s expense.
Compounding the tension, Trump invoked the Graham Act to waive a wide array of sanctions on Russia just days before they were due to take effect. The administration argued the measures would hinder peace‑brokerage efforts, yet former US ambassador to Kyiv William Taylor described the action as “providing carrots to the Russians and sticks to the Ukrainians”. The decision came amid reports that intelligence sharing and access to Elon Musk’s Starlink satellite service have been curtailed, though US officials have denied any deliberate slowdown.
Impact on Ukraine’s defence capabilities
The practical ramifications for Kyiv are becoming evident. Patriot air‑defence missiles, already in short supply globally, have reached Ukraine in only trickle amounts. According to a report in The Washington Post, citing an unnamed Ukrainian official, “only a couple” of interceptors remain in the country’s inventory. The Trump administration’s alleged slowdown of the approval process for allied nations to transfer their stocks has left Ukrainian air defences stretched thin.
Similarly, Starlink terminals have been experiencing connectivity issues. Ukrainian officials reported that high‑speed links were unstable, making it harder to counter fast‑moving Russian drones. While US Secretary of State Marco Rubio attributed the disruption to a “software problem”, the pattern of interruptions has fuelled suspicion that a deliberate policy is in place.
What lies ahead for Kyiv and Washington
The latest round of talks in Oslo was followed by plans for Witkoff to carry updated proposals to St Petersburg, where all eyes now turn to Putin. Norwegian Prime Minister Jonas Gahr Støre described the discussions as having helped “to straighten out a few things”, urging both sides to move beyond past grievances. Zelensky, for his part, expressed optimism that the early‑warning issue had been resolved and hinted at progress on missile and satellite matters.
Yet the underlying mistrust remains. A decade‑long suspicion held by Trump that Ukraine interfered in his 2016 election has never fully dissipated. Early impeachment proceedings centred on the withholding of $391 million in military aid, a sum that still resonates in the current diplomatic climate. While some observers suggest that Trump’s stance could shift again, the volatility is proving costly for Kyiv.
Why it Matters
The deepening rift between Washington and Kyiv reverberates far beyond Eastern Europe. As the United States recalibrates its strategic priorities, the Indo‑Pacific region watches closely. A weakened Ukraine cedes more territory to Russia, emboldening Moscow’s assertiveness in the Pacific and complicating America’s efforts to contain China. Moreover, the diesel pact and relaxed sanctions signal a broader willingness to engage with Russian energy, potentially influencing global oil markets that are vital to Asian economies. For Britain, which maintains close defence ties with both the US and Ukraine, the unfolding drama raises questions about the reliability of transatlantic security commitments at a time when emerging powers are reshaping the geopolitical landscape.
