Donald Trump’s approval rating has fallen to 36% with less than two weeks to go before the US midterm elections, according to a New York Times/Siena College poll that found widespread dissatisfaction with the president’s economic record and handling of the conflict with Iran. The October survey of about 3,494 likely voters produced a new low for Trump in the polling series: 59% disapproved of his performance, while 52% said they intended to support the Democratic candidate in their constituency.
The findings present a serious challenge for Republicans, who need to defend their majority in Congress and who have frequently relied on the president to energise the party’s base. They also suggest that Trump is becoming a less dependable asset among moderate and independent voters, particularly those focused on household finances.
A warning for the White House
Trump’s net rating has declined by two percentage points between the September and October rounds of the NYT/Siena poll. A 36% approval share means that opposition to the administration is running well ahead of support, leaving the White House with limited room for error as campaigning enters its final phase.
The national result does not determine the outcome in any particular race. Turnout patterns, candidate quality and local campaign spending can quickly alter the picture. It does, however, establish the political environment in which Republicans must operate: an electorate that appears to be judging the party largely through the unpopularity of its standard-bearer.
That has created an awkward position for candidates. Trump has been appearing at rallies for Republican contenders aligned with his MAGA movement, but several candidates are also trying to distance themselves from aspects of his record. The strategy is politically understandable, yet it exposes a central contradiction for the party.
Republican candidates cannot always borrow the president’s political strengths while disclaiming the policies that have made him vulnerable.
Economic pressures dominate voter anger
No issue generated more widespread opposition than the state of the economy and the rising cost of everyday life. Among registered voters, 73% disapproved of Trump’s handling of petrol prices, while 69% rejected his approach to the cost of living. The economy drew 64% disapproval.
About 65% of respondents also disapproved of his management of the war with Iran, which has continued for nearly eight months. The conflict has added to upward pressure on oil and petrol prices, connecting international policy with the household costs that voters say are shaping their choices.
That contrast is politically uncomfortable for the administration. During the 2024 campaign, Trump pledged to bring down everyday costs, keep inflation under control and prevent the US from becoming embroiled in additional conflicts. By 21 October, petrol prices were above $4.25 per US gallon and the latest inflation reading stood at 3.7%.
For a president whose political identity is closely tied to economic nationalism and public assertions of presidential strength, the figures invite a straightforward question: can the White House persuade voters that the policies associated with the president are improving their lives?
The poll suggests the answer is not yet. Disapproval of the economy and prices comfortably exceeds approval, and those issues are likely to remain central as both parties seek to mobilise voters before the November election.
Democrats gain momentum, but the race remains fluid
Democratic strategists have seized on the opening. Their candidates have focused on household finances in an effort to appeal to independent and undecided voters, promising to curb policies such as tariffs that they argue have driven up prices. With 52% of likely voters saying they planned to back a Democrat, the party enters the final stretch with a clear national advantage.
Yet the same survey should not be treated as a blueprint for a Democratic victory. National polls tend to conceal differences between competitive districts and safe seats, and they offer limited insight into whether supporters will turn out. The enthusiasm of a party’s base can matter as much as its aggregate polling position.
Republicans also retain structural strengths. The party can compete for donors, organise volunteers and benefit from the visibility that comes from having a sitting president in the White House. Its candidates in Texas, Ohio, New York, Alaska and Iowa are also supported by substantial campaign war chests.
For Democrats, the challenge is to convert an advantage on the economy into votes in tightly fought races without allowing the president to recast the election as a referendum on the wider Democratic agenda. Republican candidates who successfully distance themselves from Trump may also reduce the cost of the president’s unpopularity in their particular districts.
The result is therefore best understood as a warning rather than a verdict. It identifies an electorate open to change, but it does not settle which
