The latest Ipsos poll indicates a dramatic shift in the UK’s political terrain, with Reform UK’s support collapsing to 20% and the Conservatives holding a modest four‑point advantage at 24%, while Labour under Andy Burnham enjoys its strongest rating since the last election, positioned to command a substantial parliamentary majority.
The findings mark a stark reversal from a year earlier, when Reform commanded over 30% and was seen as the frontrunner for No 10. Analysts say the data reflect a broader realignment of voter sentiment.
Polling Landscape
The Ipsos survey places Reform on just 20%, with the Conservatives ahead on 24%, giving the Tories their largest lead over Reform since the 2024 general election. Labour sits at 32%, its highest poll rating in the current cycle, translating – according to Electoral Calculus – into a potential majority of 134 seats, a slight decline from the 167‑seat majority secured in July 2024. The Greens, led by Zack Polanski, register only 8% of support, while the Liberal Democrats under Sir Ed Davey are measured at 9%, suggesting both smaller parties could lose significant ground at the next election.
Labour’s Resurgence
Labour’s resurgence is evident in its 32% share, the highest since the previous general election, and the projected 134‑seat majority would represent a decisive parliamentary advantage. Andy Burnham’s leadership has consolidated left‑leaning voters, as noted by political consultant Keiran Pedley, who observed that “the tectonic plates” of the right are shifting, with the Conservatives now holding a clearer second place rather than Reform UK. “Whilst the headline figures do show a striking change, they confirm a pattern we have been seeing in the underlying data for some time,” Pedley added, underscoring the durability of the trend.
Reform UK’s Downfall
Reform UK’s decline follows a series of high‑profile scandals. A standards commissioner investigation is examining a £5 million donation received from crypto billionaire Christopher Harborne, while police probes focus on deputy leader Richard Tice and Treasury spokesman Robert Jenrick. A Channel 4 investigation uncovered illegal donations, prompting the resignation of chief of staff Dan Jukes and policy director James Orr. Recent ITV reporting revealed racism among candidates and councillors, further eroding confidence. Raheem Kassam, a key Farage ally, warned that “the capital flight will be astounding” should Reform fail to secure power, hinting at severe economic repercussions.
What This Means for the Vote
The impending Budget adds a layer of uncertainty, with the government facing a “challenging” fiscal plan, as Burnham cautioned: “The lesson of the last year is that British politics is volatile. The picture today is very different to six months ago and it could be different again in six months’ time too.” The collapse of Reform’s vote share, coupled with the Greens’ waning presence and the Lib Dems’ modest standing, suggests a reshaped electoral map that could see Labour gain substantially while smaller parties lose ground.
Why it Matters
The Ipsos results signal a potential realignment that could reshape the next parliament, delivering Labour a commanding majority and marginalising Reform UK just as it begins to crumble under scandal and public disillusionment. Such a shift would not only affect the composition of Westminster but also influence policy direction, particularly on fiscal matters and the government’s approach to the upcoming Budget, underscoring the volatility and strategic importance of the current political moment.
