In just three weeks, voters in Gorton and Denton will cast their ballots in a byelection that has the potential to reshape the political landscape. With Labour’s credibility on the line and the Greens emerging as frontrunners, this election is poised to be a key barometer of public sentiment towards Keir Starmer’s leadership. The implications extend beyond local dynamics, signalling broader trends affecting the party’s future.
Context of the Byelection
The Gorton and Denton byelection is set against a backdrop of political turbulence. The decision by Andy Burnham not to stand has left Labour vulnerable to challenges, notably from the Green Party and Reform UK, who are eager to capitalise on the Labour government’s diminishing popularity. Historically, Gorton and Denton have been solid Labour territory, but the recent byelection in Caerphilly serves as a cautionary tale for the party. Once a Labour stronghold, Caerphilly saw a dramatic shift as Reform UK gained traction, prompting concerns that Gorton could follow suit.
In Caerphilly, Plaid Cymru surged from 28% to 47% of the vote between 2021 and 2025, while Labour plummeted from 46% to a mere 11%. The shift illustrates a clear trend: when voters perceive that Labour is no longer the most viable option to counter right-wing advances, they are quick to search for alternatives.
Learning from Caerphilly’s Lessons
The Gorton and Denton campaign must heed the lessons from Caerphilly, particularly regarding the importance of being perceived as the primary bulwark against Reform UK. The Greens are currently positioned as the favourites, and any narrative suggesting they are the best option to stop Reform could significantly damage Labour’s chances.
Moreover, it’s evident that financial clout does not guarantee electoral success. In Caerphilly, Labour spent an eye-watering £98,000 to try and secure their seat, while Plaid Cymru’s modest £47,000 expenditure yielded a remarkable victory. Labour’s misallocation of resources, including £25,000 on accommodation far removed from the constituency, highlights the dangers of ineffective campaign strategies.
Engaging with Voters Authentically
Another critical takeaway for Labour is the need to connect with voters on real issues. The Caerphilly campaign, for instance, saw Labour’s candidate implore constituents to vote for them to “save our libraries,” despite the proposed cuts being initiated by the very Labour council he sought to represent. This kind of disconnection can alienate voters, particularly in a constituency governed by Labour.
For Gorton, where a Labour candidate will run in a Labour-controlled area, authenticity and a genuine message are essential. The party must avoid the trap of presenting itself as a transformative force when it is already in power.
Turnout: The Key to Victory
Turnout will be another pivotal factor. Byelections are often characterised by low engagement, yet the recent Caerphilly contest saw an uptick in voter turnout from 44% in 2021 to 50.4% in 2025, driven by a collective desire to thwart Reform. Such a surge indicates that when voters believe their choices matter, they are more likely to participate. Labour must ensure that their campaign resonates sufficiently to drive turnout in Gorton and Denton.
The stakes are high for Labour. A loss in Gorton could embolden Reform UK, which has shown signs of waning enthusiasm in Wales following Caerphilly’s results. This byelection represents a critical juncture—how Labour approaches it could either reaffirm or threaten its standing in the upcoming general elections.
Why it Matters
The Gorton and Denton byelection is much more than a local contest; it encapsulates the broader struggles within British politics. As Labour grapples with its identity and the threats from both left and right, this byelection could set the tone for future electoral battles. Should the Greens succeed, it may signal a shift in the political narrative, prompting Labour to reassess its strategies in an increasingly fragmented landscape. Failure to adapt could see Labour lose its grip on power, risking further erosion of its traditional support base amid rising alternative parties.
